Shanghai aluminum main shock down The market still needs to wait and see

Market focus: (1) According to the statistics of the China Electricity Council, in October, the national industrial electricity consumption was 442.
9 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.
1%, and the growth rate was 4.
5 percentage points lower than the same period of the previous year, accounting for 67.
1%
of the total social electricity consumption.
(2) The latest data report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on Wednesday showed that the supply of primary aluminum was 1.
268 million tons from January to September 2021, and the oversupply was 1.
295 million tons
in 2020.
(3) As of November 18, according to Mysteel statistics, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 1.
036 million tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from this Monday (November 15), and 622,000 tons
in the same period last year.

Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 18320-18360 yuan / ton, the average price was 18340 yuan / ton, down 130 yuan
from the previous trading day.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipt 202189 tons, daily increase of 1245 tons; LME aluminum stocks 959975 tons, down 8,475 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2201 contract held 145060 lots, -1017 lots, short positions 146262 lots, -4144 lots, net short positions 1202 lots, -3127 lots, long short and net short were reduced
.

Market research: High inflation and good retail sales data boosted the market's speculation about the Fed's early interest rate hike, and the US index continued to suppress
Shanghai aluminum strongly.
Fundamentals, the monthly production of primary aluminum is expected to increase month-on-month, and the supply side is expected to remain tight before the end of the heating season; However, the price of alumina thermal coal has continued to decline recently, and the cost support of the aluminum market has been weakening
.
At the same time, the latest data show that electrolytic aluminum has accumulated again, and the trend of coal is weak, the atmosphere of industrial products is pessimistic, and the pressure above aluminum prices is obvious
.
The recent round of aluminum price decline is mainly driven by the reversal of commodity sentiment and the backhand short selling of funds, the short-term trend is weak, and the timing of policy and market sentiment repair still needs to be seen
.