Shanghai aluminum main shock adjustment market demand performance is acceptable

Market focus: (1) U.
S.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said that it is possible to reach an agreement
with US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on a stimulus package to deal with the impact of the new crown epidemic.
(2) The UK agreed to restart Brexit trade talks with the EU, and the two sides will start intensive negotiations in London starting Thursday afternoon, which will be held
daily.
(3) China's aluminum output in September 2020 was 5.
062 million tons, an increase of 4.
16% month-on-month and 12.
40% year-on-year; From January to September 2020, China's aluminum output accumulated 42.
105 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.
70%.

Spot analysis: On October 22, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14930-14970 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14950 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 60 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the circulation of goods has improved significantly, cargo holders are actively shipping, downstream just need to purchase, traders are mainly
wait-and-see.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 98,943 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 3,276 tons; On October 21, LME aluminum stocks were 1485125 tons, an increase of 63,575 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2011 contract are 72469 lots, a daily increase of 795 lots, a short position of 84769 lots, a daily decrease of 2136 lots, a net short position of 12300 lots, a daily decrease of 2931 lots, more increase and short, and a decrease
in net space.

Market research and judgment: October 22 Shanghai aluminum main force 2011 shock adjustment
.
The US White House hinted that it hoped to reach a stimulus deal within two days, and the UK and the EU resumed Brexit trade negotiations, and the dollar index continued to be weak; At the same time, domestic aluminum production rebounded in September, demand performance was acceptable, and Shanghai aluminum inventories have recently declined, forming a strong support
for aluminum prices.
However, the new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is also gradually released, and Hydro resumed production earlier than expected, alumina prices remained weak, and high profits of aluminum plants also stimulated idle production capacity, and the pressure on aluminum prices gradually increased
.
Technically, the mainstream position of Shanghai's main 2011 contract increased and decreased, paying attention to the support of the 10-day moving average, and it is expected that the short-term shock adjustment
.