Shanghai aluminum main high pullback is expected to short-term shock adjustment

Market focus: (1) China announced new tariff exemptions
for 6 U.
S.
chemical and petroleum products.
(2) At 23:00 Beijing time on Friday, the United States will release personal income and points for November and the PCE index
.
(3) The Paragominas mine and Alunorte refinery in Brazil under Norwegian Hydro Company have affected production due to power outages, and the power supply is expected to be restored
within 5-10 days.

Spot analysis: On December 20, spot A00 aluminum reported 14430-14470 yuan / ton, the average price was 14450 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton
per day.
Under the high price, the shippers are more active, the middlemen are enthusiastic about receiving goods, and the trading between the two sides is acceptable, but due to the lack of large players to participate, the overall transaction enthusiasm is not as hot as at the beginning of the
week.
Due to the continuous consumption of inventory due to the long wait-and-see period, considering the demand for stocking on the weekend, the enthusiasm of downstream receiving goods has increased significantly, and the purchase volume has increased
compared with the previous two days.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Friday was 48,707 tons, a daily decrease of 2,169 tons, a decline of 4 consecutive days; On December 19, LME aluminum stocks were 1,487,300 tons, a daily decrease of 475 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2002 contract were 81450 lots, a daily increase of 637 lots, short positions of 92894 lots, a daily decrease of 380 lots, a net short position of 11444 lots, a daily decrease of 1017 lots, more increase and short, a decrease
in net space.

Market research and judgment: On December 20, the main force of Shanghai aluminum pulled back
at a high level in 2002.
China again exempted some U.
S.
goods from tariffs, U.
S.
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that the trade deal will be signed in early January next year, market optimism is heating up, while domestic alumina production has declined, prices have shown signs of recovery, cost pressure has declined, superimposed downstream demand has improved, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventories have further degraded, aluminum prices are stronger, but the recent London aluminum inventory has shown an upward trend, superimposed on the future demand situation, putting pressure
on aluminum prices 。 In terms of spot, the shipment of holders at high prices was more active, the enthusiasm of middlemen to receive goods was maintained, the trading between the two sides was acceptable, the enthusiasm of downstream receiving goods was significantly improved, and the purchase volume increased
compared with the previous two days.
Technically, the main 2002 contract daily MACD red column increment of Shanghai aluminum, mainstream short positions increase large, is expected short-term shock adjustment
.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai-aluminum 2002 contract can be sold high and low in the range of 14120-14220 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 50 yuan / ton
each.