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On Wednesday, the main 2201 contract of Shanghai aluminum rebounded, with the highest 18760 yuan / ton, the lowest 18280 yuan / ton, closing at 18645 yuan, down 1.
82% from the closing price of the previous trading day; LME aluminum rose in volatility, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was quoted at $2594 / ton, up 0.
84%
from the previous trading day.
Market focus: (1) U.
S.
retail sales increased 1.
7% in October, compared with an estimated 1.
4%
increase.
(2) St.
Louis Fed President Bullard said that the Fed should accelerate the reduction of monetary stimulus measures to cope with the surge in inflation in the United States
.
Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 18450-18490 yuan / ton, the average price was 18470 yuan / ton, down 470 yuan
from the previous trading day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the holders of goods shipped at a high price, the receivers actively entered the market to purchase the source of goods, and the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods within the day was general, and the overall trading volume was average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipt 200944 tons, daily increase of 1005 tons; LME aluminum stocks 959975 tons, down 8,475 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum 2201 contract 146077 lots, +11666 lots, short positions 150406 lots, +11334 lots, net short positions 4329 lots, -335 lots, long and short increase, net short decrease
.
Market research and judgment: The US retail sales data in October hit the fastest month-on-month growth rate in seven months, and Fed officials made hawkish speeches, the dollar strengthened again, coupled with the decline in domestic real estate data, suppressing Shanghai aluminum
.
Fundamentally, the monthly production of primary aluminum increased month-on-month, but it is expected that the supply side will remain tight before the end of the heating season; At present, the price of raw materials is still at a high level, and the cost is supported
to a certain extent.
However, the latest data shows that electrolytic aluminum has accumulated again, and the trend of coal is weak, the atmosphere of industrial products is pessimistic again, and the pressure above aluminum prices is obvious
.
The recent round of aluminum price decline is mainly driven by the reversal of commodity sentiment and the backhand short selling of funds, the short-term trend is weak, and the timing of policy and market sentiment repair still needs to be seen
.
Technically, the daily level remains weak, focusing on moving average support
.
