Shanghai aluminum main force to stop the decline and rebound is expected to be strong short-term shock

Market focus: China's Caixin services PMI recorded 51.
6 in July, down 0.
4 percentage points from June and the lowest
in five months.
Total new orders growth in the services sector, while remaining strong in July, showed signs of
slowing.
U.
S.
nonfarm payrolls changed by 164,000 in July, with slow job growth and U.
S.
-China trade tensions fueling expectations
that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in September.
In July 2019, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.
0195 million tons, with an average daily output of 97,400 tons, an increase of 00,500 tons from the daily output of 96,900 tons
in June.
China's alumina production in July 2019 was 5,910,900 tons, with an average daily output of 190,600 tons, down 0.
09 million tons from 191,500 tons
in June.

Spot analysis: On August 5, the spot A00 aluminum quotation was 13820-13860 yuan / ton, with an average price of 13840 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton
from the previous trading day.
In the morning, traders and middlemen in the East China market traded actively, but the market wait-and-see mood was stronger, the holders did not ship much, slightly raised prices, and the aluminum price rose sharply in the later period, some middlemen were more optimistic about the future market, and the number of receivers increased significantly, but the actual transaction at this time was not as good as in
the morning.
Downstream manufacturers still had some replenishment on Monday, but the activity was not obvious
compared to traders.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total amount of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 141811 tons, a daily decrease of 1602 tons; On August 2, LME aluminum stocks were 1,024,200 tons, a daily decrease of 3,750 tons
.
As of the week of August 2, the aluminum inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 403,660 tons, a weekly increase of 7,260 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of the main 1909 contract of Shanghai aluminum are 75904 lots, a daily increase of 596 lots, a short position of 79851 lots, a daily decrease of 12 lots, a net short position of 3947 lots, a daily decrease of 608 lots, a long increase and a decrease
in net space.

Market research and judgment: On August 5, the main 1909 contract of Shanghai aluminum stopped falling and rebounded
.
The uncertainty of the global trade situation has increased sharply, and the market pessimism has risen, putting pressure on aluminum prices, but aluminum inventories have a downward trend, and upstream alumina plants have reduced production, and aluminum prices have been relatively firm
.
In terms of spot, traders and middlemen in the morning market are actively trading, but the market wait-and-see sentiment is stronger, the holders do not ship much, slightly up, the later aluminum price rose sharply, some middlemen are more optimistic about the future market, the receiver has increased significantly, but at this time the actual transaction is not as good as in the morning, downstream manufacturers still have some replenishment on Monday, but the activity is not obvious
compared to traders.
Technically, the main 1909 contract of Shanghai aluminum returned above the 10-day moving average, and short-term volatility is expected to be strong
.