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LME aluminum continued to rise on Thursday, as of 15:15 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1765.
5 US dollars / ton, up 0.
34%
per day.
The main 2002 contract of Shanghai aluminum pulled back slightly, with a maximum of 13,965 yuan / ton and a minimum of 13,855 yuan / ton during the day, closing at 13,880 yuan / ton, down 0.
32% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 93430 lots, and the daily decrease was 31090 lots; The position was 220,600 lots, an increase of 3,796 lots
per day.
The basis was reduced to 200 yuan/ton; The price difference of Shanghai aluminum in 2001-2002 remained at 75 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, but Powell said that the Fed will not raise interest rates
unless it sees inflation continue to rise sharply.
(2) The Australian Bauxite Company plans to produce approximately 45,000 tonnes of bauxite in Tasmania in 2019, down from around
75,000 tonnes in 2018.
Spot analysis: On December 12, spot A00 aluminum reported 14060-14100 yuan / ton, the average price was 14080 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton
per day.
Aluminum prices fell back during the day, and the shippers shipped more actively, but the middlemen received the goods generally, tended to receive the goods at a low price, and the two sides traded deadlocked, and the actual transaction was general
.
The downstream stocking state was better than the previous two days, mainly due to the decline in aluminum prices, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods has improved
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 52,569 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 1,353 tons, a 12-day decline; On December 11, LME aluminum stocks were 1330825 tons, an increase of 26,850 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2002 contract were 72072 lots, a daily increase of 2308 lots, short positions were 81366 lots, a daily increase of 2284 lots, a net short position of 9294 lots, a daily decrease of 24 lots, long and short increased, and net space decreased
.
Market research and judgment: On December 12, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2002 pulled back
slightly.
The deadline for the implementation of a new round of tariffs in the United States is approaching, market concerns are heating up, while upstream alumina inventories continue to accumulate, raw material prices are under pressure downward, and the recent Lun aluminum inventory continues to rise, weakening the impact of domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory, aluminum prices above pressure increases, but the Fed released a dovish signal, the dollar fell sharply, downstream automobile production and sales have rebounded, the demand side has been improved, aluminum rod inventory has been significantly digested, supporting aluminum prices
。 In terms of spot, aluminum prices have fallen, and holders are more active in shipments, but middlemen receive goods generally, tend to receive goods at low prices, and the downstream stocking state is better than the previous two days, mainly because aluminum prices have fallen, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods has improved
.
Technically, the main 2002 contract daily KDJ indicator of Shanghai aluminum is dead, focusing on the support of the 13800 position, and is expected to adjust short-term shocks
.
