Shanghai aluminum main force rushed back down, downstream on-demand procurement

Market focus: (1) At 3:00 Beijing time on Thursday, the US FOMC will announce the interest rate decision and statement
.
(2) Hydro proposes to cut by 20% the upper limit of primary aluminum production at the Slovalco aluminum smelter in Slovakia, which has an annual primary aluminum production capacity of 175,000 tons
.
(3) November automobile production and sales increased by 13% and 7.
6% month-on-month, respectively, and from January to November, automobile production and sales decreased by 9% and 9.
1% y/y, respectively, and decreased by 1.
4 and 0.
6 percentage points
from January to October.

Spot analysis: On December 11, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14110-14150 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14130 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 20 yuan / ton
.
Aluminum prices continued to rise during the day, the morning holders actively shipped, the middlemen received goods more actively, the two sides traded actively, after 10:30 spot transaction heat fell, the holders' enthusiasm for shipment did not decrease, but the middlemen at this time it was more difficult to recognize the price, and the transaction between the two sides began to show a stalemate
.
Downstream manufacturers mainly purchase on demand, and they are more wait-and-see about high prices, and their initiative to buy goods is not high
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 53,922 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 1,921 tons, down 11 consecutive days; On December 10, LME aluminum stocks were 1303975 tons, an increase of 15,825 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2001 contract were 69764 lots, a daily increase of 2907 lots, short positions were 79082 lots, a daily increase of 8022 lots, a net short position of 9318 lots, a daily increase of 5115 lots, both long and short increases, and net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: On December 11, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2002 rushed back to the high
.
Recently, China has exempted some U.
S.
soybean and pork imports from tariffs, which has a positive effect on trade negotiations, but the deadline for the implementation of new tariffs in the United States is approaching, market concerns have rebounded, while upstream alumina inventories continue to accumulate, raw material prices are under pressure, and aluminum prices are under pressure, but domestic electrolytic aluminum inventories are still declining, coupled with the narrowing year-on-year decline in China's automobile production and sales in November, demand has improved to a certain extent, aluminum rod inventories have also been significantly digested, and aluminum prices still have upward
。

In terms of spot, aluminum prices continue to rise, morning holders actively ship, middlemen are also more active, downstream manufacturers are mainly purchasing on demand, more wait-and-see for high prices, and the initiative to buy goods is not high
.
Technically, the main 2002 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position, of which the mainstream long position increased even more, and it is expected to continue to rise
slightly in the short term.
Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai-aluminum 2002 contract can be long around 13910 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 13860 yuan / ton
.