Shanghai aluminum main force rebounded slightly, market sentiment dominated the futures price

Market focus: (1) According to a survey by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE), economists' median estimate believes that the real growth rate of the US economy in 2021 is 6.
7%, up from 4.
8% estimated in the March survey; The personal consumption expenditure price index (excluding food and energy) will fall to 2.
1%
in the fourth quarter.
(2) The first phase of Zhongrui Aluminum's 100,000-ton resumption of aluminum products successfully rolled off the production line
.

Spot analysis: On May 25, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 18350-18390 yuan / ton, with an average price of 18370 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan
per day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the holder is unable to hold the price, the enthusiasm of large households to receive the goods is acceptable, the receiver receives the goods at a low price, and the transaction activity is acceptable
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 154,450 tons on Tuesday, down 5,354 tons from the previous trading day; On May 24, LME stocks were 1741825 tonnes, down 8,525 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions in the main 2107 contract of Shanghai aluminum held 153553 lots, minus 3072 lots per day, 137884 short positions, 7012 lots per day, net long positions 15669 lots, daily increase of 4970 lots, long and short reduction, net increase
.

Market analysis: The Chicago Fed's national economic activity index was weaker than expected, which cooled the Fed's expectations of tightening monetary policy
.
Market risk appetite rebounded, and the US index came under pressure to the downside
.
On the supply side, the recent power curtailment in Yunnan continues to ferment and show an upgrade trend, and the power curtailment time is expected to last until mid-June, and the production capacity will be restored as early as July, and the overall marginal increment of electrolytic aluminum has declined
.
In terms of demand, terminal consumption is still in the peak season, and the demand for scrap aluminum and aluminum ingots is not reduced, and the peak season just needs to strongly support aluminum prices
.
Overall, the recent market sentiment dominates the Shanghai aluminum futures price, and the aluminum price may maintain a volatile pattern
.
Technically, the main 2107 contract day MACD indicator of Shanghai aluminum shows the expansion of the green kinetic energy column, focusing on the support of the moving average
.