Shanghai aluminum main force low opening oscillation is expected to be weak short-term oscillation

Market focus: U.
S.
President Donald Trump said on October 11 that he believes the U.
S.
and China are "very close" to ending the trade war and that the agreement they will reach is good
for both countries and the world.
Britain and the European Union said on Sunday that more work needed to be done
to secure a Brexit deal.
China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in September were 435,000 tons, and the total export volume from January to September was 4.
37 million tons, an increase of 2.
8%
year-on-year.
China's vehicle sales in September were 2.
27 million units, down 5.
2% y/y.
New energy vehicle sales in September were 80,000 units, down 34.
2%
y/y.

Spot analysis: On October 14, the spot A00 aluminum quotation was 13780-13820 yuan / ton, the average price was 13800 yuan / ton, and the daily decline was 170 yuan / ton
.
The monthly difference narrowed to around 20 yuan / ton, because there is a certain expectation of future premium superimposed on the spot price decline of more than 100, the middleman is very active in receiving goods at the low level, a large household receives goods normally, but the cargo holder ships relatively little, and the overall performance is less and more but the transaction is
acceptable.
Downstream manufacturers consider that the price is more preferential than last Friday, and there is a small amount of replenishment within the day, but because there is still a wait-and-see attitude towards future prices, the downstream as a whole still needs to take goods
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 97,692 tons, an increase of 2,891 tons per day; On October 11, LME aluminum stocks were 974,200 tons, an increase of 5,750 tons
per day.
In the week ended October 11, aluminum inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 319873 tons, a weekly increase of 885 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of the main 1912 contract of Shanghai aluminum are 75349 lots, an increase of 1110 lots per day, short positions are 85325 lots, a daily increase of 265 lots, net short positions are 9976 lots, a daily decrease of 845 lots, long and short are increased, and the net space is reduced
.

On October 14, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 1912 opened
low.
Sino-US trade negotiations have made phased progress, market confidence has improved, and electrolytic aluminum inventories continue to degrade, which is good for aluminum prices, but at present, alumina shows oversupply, prices continue to be low, and downstream demand continues to weaken, aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate trends, aluminum prices overall performance is weak
.
In terms of spot, the intraday monthly difference narrowed to around 20 yuan / ton, because there are certain expectations for future premiums superimposed on the spot price decline of more than 100, middlemen are very active in receiving goods at a low level, a large household receives goods normally, but the shippers ship relatively little, and the downstream as a whole still just needs to take goods
.
Technically, the main 1912 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell below the previous low, and the daily MACD green column increment is expected to be weak
in the short term.