Shanghai aluminum main force high open shock is expected short-term shock adjustment

Market focus: There is news that the EU has agreed in principle to a Brexit extension, and a decision on the matter may be made on Friday, and the British Parliament will also vote
on the extension of the Brexit.
At 19:45 Beijing time on Thursday, the ECB will announce its October interest rate decision, followed by ECB President Mario Draghi holding a press conference
.
According to Zhuochuang data monitoring, from January to September 2019, the domestic real estate aluminum consumption (including the monthly renovation of old houses) was about 7.
3631 million tons, down 4.
55%
from 7.
7138 million tons in the same period of 2018.

Spot analysis: On October 24, the spot A00 aluminum quotation was 13970-14010 yuan / ton, the average price was 13990 yuan / ton, and the daily increase was 50 yuan / ton
.
The intraday situation is similar to the previous day, due to the upgrade of the VAT system tomorrow, the invoice related affairs are stopped, the market holders have reduced the number of monthly ticket goods, most of them are next month's ticket goods, and the middlemen are still actively receiving goods, but on the whole, the transaction between buyers and sellers is still deadlocked, the downstream is mainly based on demand, a small amount of stock, and the overall performance is average
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 70,591 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 1,598 tons, a 6-day decline; On October 23, LME aluminum stocks were 970425 tons, a daily decrease of 2,050 tons, a decline of 6 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of the main 1912 contract of Shanghai aluminum are 81077 lots, an increase of 1058 lots per day, short positions are 85013 lots, a daily increase of 583 lots, a net short position of 3936 lots, a daily decrease of 475 lots, long and short are increased, and the net space is reduced
.

Market research and judgment: On October 24, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 1912 opened high.

Brexit blocked, the sterling rally slowed to support the dollar, the downward pressure on the global economy increased, the market sentiment was cautious, and the fourth quarter of electrolytic aluminum will have production capacity, aluminum prices upside is limited, but downstream home appliance production has increased, demand has improved, while the current electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is low, inventory dematerialization continues, and the support for aluminum prices is still large
.
In terms of spot, the intraday situation is similar to the previous day, and the middlemen are still actively receiving goods, but on the whole, the transaction between buyers and sellers is still deadlocked, and the downstream is mainly on-demand, a small amount of stocking, and the overall performance is average
.
Technically, the main 1912 contract daily MACD green column contraction of Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to the pressure above the 13930 position, and expect short-term shock adjustment
.