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Today's Shanghai aluminum main contract 1705 Jedi rebounded, closing up to 13880 yuan / ton, up 0.
8%
per day.
The daily closing price runs at the intersection of moving averages, indicating that long and short trading is cautious, with technical support below focusing on 13,600 yuan / ton, and upper rebound resistance focusing on 14,000 yuan / ton
.
At the same time, the positive price difference between the Shanghai aluminum 1704 and 1705 contracts remained at 100 yuan / ton, indicating that the willingness of forward contracts to decline has risen
.
In terms of external disk: Asia Lun aluminum around 1915 US dollars / ton around a narrow range, the operating range is 1918-1909 US dollars / ton, of which 3 months Lun aluminum flat at 1916 US dollars / ton, the fluctuation is gentler than Shanghai aluminum, the current Lun aluminum is still stable above the moving average group, its upper rebound resistance focuses on 1950 US dollars / ton
.
Macro: The Asian dollar index extended last week's decline and is now trading around 100.
19, because after the Fed's interest rate hike boots landed, the next interest rate meeting was in May, before the market fell into a vacuum period of Fed interest rate hike speculation, and the dollar index temporarily lacked upward momentum
。 Aluminum industry information, data from the International Aluminum Association showed that China's average daily output of primary aluminum in February was 90,500 tons, lower than 95,200 tons in January, while China's total aluminum production in February was 2.
534 million tons, a sharp decrease of 416,000 tons from the previous month, hitting a new low since February last year, and the total global primary aluminum production in February except China also fell to 1.
973 million tons, down 197,000 tons
from the previous month.
Market: On March 21, the Shanghai transaction concentration was 13490-13500 yuan / ton, the discount for the month was 150-140 yuan / ton, the Wuxi transaction concentration was 13490-13500 yuan / ton, and the Hangzhou transaction concentration was 13510-13520 yuan / ton
.
When the holder stabilized the shipment, when the aluminum fell to the bottom of 13,620 yuan / ton in the month, the holder showed a willingness to hold the price, the middleman was difficult to find a suitable source of goods at a low price, and the downstream enterprises purchased stably on demand, and the overall transaction was relatively stable, and the supply and demand ends showed a tug
of war around 13,500 yuan / ton.
The Shanghai aluminum 1705 contract bottomed out and rebounded to 13,880 yuan / ton, as the production of primary aluminum decreased significantly in February, which performed much better than other base metals
.
In view of the fact that Shanghai aluminum is still stable above M60, the short-term Shanghai aluminum 1705 contract can maintain a long idea, can be backed above 13700 yuan to bargain more, the entry reference around 13800 yuan, the target of 14000 yuan / ton
.
