Shanghai aluminum is weaker than the external market as a whole, and the market expects consumption to pick up

In terms of consumption, downstream consumption just needs a seasonal slow recovery, but considering the current high aluminum prices or suppressing demand, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact
of the epidemic and environmental protection control in the north on the downstream resumption of work.

In terms of inventory, social treasury data showed that inventories accumulated and slowed down
.
On February 28, domestic aluminum ingot stocks were 1.
117 million tons, 18,000 tons
more than Thursday.
LME aluminum inventories fell by 1,025 tonnes from the previous session to 823,000 tonnes
on Feb.
28.

In terms of the market, Shanghai aluminum rebounded yesterday morning, but the overall weaker than the external market, South China spot market trading is general, the market maintains a discount-based, SMM Foshan to 03 contract premium to maintain around 30 yuan / ton, the average spot price recorded 22720 yuan / ton, down 120 yuan / ton from last Friday, the data shows that aluminum social inventory in South China maintained a state of accumulation, South China region aluminum social inventory recorded 257,000 tons, an increase of 08,000 tons from last Thursday, South China aluminum rod out of the warehouse is better to maintain the state of destocking, overall, South China aluminum ingot downstream receiving goods generally, the holder of the net discount shipment, concentrated transaction on the net discount 40-discount 20 yuan / ton
.

Recently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has become intense, many military facilities in Ukraine have been destroyed and hit, and panic in the financial market has risen
sharply.
The European Union and the United States announced sanctions against Russia, which seriously affected the "Nord Stream-2" project, considering that the overseas European energy crisis is still fermenting, and there is great uncertainty
in overseas natural gas supply before the spring season.
In terms of domestic fundamentals, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other places have begun to resume production, and the process of resumption of production is uneven
.

In terms of prices, the threat of the energy crisis to overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity may continue to the beginning of spring, and with the resumption of construction in various places after the holiday, driven by the construction, completion and infrastructure projects of real estate stock, consumption can be expected to pick up, but it is necessary to be wary of the fluctuation of market expectations for interest rate hikes in the late first quarter
.