Shanghai aluminum is weak and volatile in the short term, and the market trading is general

On the macro front, the official manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI and composite PMI output all rose to expansion territory in June
.
Overseas U.
S.
consumer spending in May was less than expected, exacerbating recession fears, and market risk appetite retreated
.
Fundamentally, domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity continues to rise, but the growth rate of supply has slowed down
.
Recently, the start of downstream processing enterprises has picked up, and it is expected that domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks will continue to be destocked
.

In terms of the market, the quotation of spot aluminum ingots in Shanghai was 18160-18200 yuan / ton, the average price was 18180 yuan / ton, down 280 yuan / ton from the previous trading day, and the 2207 contract was reported at 50 ~ 10 yuan / ton
.
Shanghai aluminum volatility fell in the morning, and as of the midday close, the main contract fell 345 yuan / ton, down 1.
86%.

Holders reported a premium to the 07 contract in the morning, the 07 contract was posted at 30 yuan / ton, the spot of aluminum ingots fell with the market, the East China market holders reported the average price of the net price / ton up and down to hear the transaction, the South China market holders reported the average price of the net price -30 ~ -20 yuan / ton up and down heard the transaction
.
The enthusiasm of large households to receive goods within the day is general, and the receiving price in the East China market is around 18180 yuan / ton
.
On the whole, the market trading sentiment is acceptable, and the trading performance is average
.

On the supply side, the profit of alumina smelting is stable, the new expansion project is steadily landed, and although the import volume is suppressed, the domestic supply and demand of alumina is loosening; External interference factors subsided, superimposed on the landing of production capacity, it is expected that the output of electrolytic aluminum in July will be 3.
48 million tons, with the repair of the price ratio, net imports may increase month-on-month, but the sharp correction in aluminum prices has made it difficult for some smelters to make profits
.

In terms of consumption, domestic consumption has entered the off-season, and overseas demand is facing downward pressure
.
Last week, domestic electrolytic aluminum social stocks fell by 11,000 tons, and bonded zone stocks fell by 7,100 tons
.
Although the domestic supply side is expected to increase, smelting costs and the news of overseas smelter production cuts will give support to aluminum prices, pay close attention to domestic consumption performance, and it is recommended to maintain a wait-and-see
first.

At present, the domestic aluminum market is in a long and short intertwined stage, the domestic policy is loose and low inventories at home and abroad are supporting the price below, Shanghai aluminum is stuck to 18,000, short-term is still above its weak shock; at the same time, the hidden danger of production reduction caused by the soaring overseas energy prices still needs attention, and then after the Fed raises interest rates to stabilize again, the price climbs again; but in the near term, macro sentiment is still dominated by a bearish tone, if market demand expectations weaken again, then short-term Shanghai aluminum does not rule out the possibility of dipping below 18,000
。