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Today's Shanghai aluminum 1705 contract fluctuated downward throughout the day, closing at 13830 yuan / ton at the end of the day, down 290 yuan / ton from yesterday's settlement price, down 2.
05%, with a position of 268504 lots, an increase of 19030 lots, and a volume of 201920 lots
.
In terms of futures structure, the aluminum market maintained a positive arrangement of near low and far high, and the price difference between Shanghai aluminum 1704 and 1705 contracts narrowed to 100 yuan / ton, indicating that the willingness of forward contracts to resist decline was weakened
.
In the external market: the Asian market Lun aluminum shock broke the decline for three consecutive trading days to close negative, the lowest fell to 1875.
5 US dollars / ton, now trading at 1881.
5 US dollars / ton
.
On March 2, Lun Aluminum held 730,000 lots, with a daily increase of 3,284 lots, and the continuous increase and decline of positions indicated that the sentiment of short opening and killing was high, and bulls took advantage of the situation to leave the market
.
Macro: Due to the further increase in the probability of the Fed's interest rate hike in March, the Asian dollar index fluctuated higher today, and is now trading at 101.
54, and the pattern is unchanged
.
In addition, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Friday that a rate hike in March would be appropriate if the economic data released was in line with expectations; At today's meeting of China's National People's Congress, officials from the National Development and Reform Commission said that there is also a surplus of production capacity in nonferrous metals and building materials
.
Non-ferrous metals, building materials, etc.
should be used to reduce production capacity
through market-oriented and legal means.
Rio Tinto announced on Friday that its Gladstone's Boyne smelter in Australia saw a 14 percent drop in aluminium production due to a failure to conclude a competitive power contract
.
In terms of market: Shanghai transaction concentration 13570-13590 yuan / ton, discount for the month 180-150 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration 13560-13590 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration 13600-13590 yuan / ton
.
Gongyi downstream enterprises were affected by environmental protection to stop production, resulting in outflow of goods, East China weekend aluminum ingots arrived more, holders are willing to exchange cash, downstream enterprise consumption gradually picked up, procurement volume increased, middlemen are mainly downstream procurement, the overall transaction shows that supply and demand at both ends increase, but still in the pattern
of oversupply.
Intraday Shanghai aluminum 1705 contract drove the base metal sector unilateral decline, despite the recent strong support below aluminum, but Shanghai aluminum has broken down for three consecutive days, today's pullback is likely to be driven by the external disk, the overall short pattern does not change
.
Operationally, it is recommended to buy low, long reference 13800 yuan / ton, target 14300 yuan / ton, stop loss 13650 yuan / ton
.
