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As of the close of 3 p.
m.
, the main 2212 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose to 18275, or 0.
44%.
On the macro front, the Fed raised interest rates by 75BP as scheduled, but there was a big divergence on the pace of subsequent rate hikes, and the dollar index quickly fell back to around
110 on Friday night.
Domestically, recent macro data has improved, but the current substantial bullish is still lacking, and the momentum for price upward is limited
.
On the supply side, the impact of overseas production capacity is still continuing, affected by energy factors, European and American electrolytic aluminum enterprises have reduced production by 1.
3 million tons in the past 1 year, and the pace of subsequent production reduction is slowing down, coupled with the increase in production in South America, the overall impact margin has weakened, and continue to pay attention to overseas energy issues
.
Domestically, the impact of power cuts in Sichuan has basically faded, and production capacity is gradually recovering
.
The scope of affected production capacity in Yunnan has not been further expanded, pay attention to its follow-up situation and duration, some aluminum plants in Henan, Guizhou and other places may reduce production recently, the current affected production capacity is less, but pay attention to the follow-up progress
.
In terms of downstream demand, affected by macro factors, it is still in a weak state, and the demand performance is average
.
In terms of inventory, the inventory of domestic and foreign exchanges has declined, but the inventory of aluminum ingots in domestic bonded zones has risen
.
At present, there is still great uncertainty in the European and American markets and the LME restriction policy on Rusal, and the results
are expected to be announced in mid-to-late November.
Although Shanghai aluminum is still volatile and rising, but the market rumors of the epidemic liberalization have not been confirmed, so the epidemic concerns are still there, the intraday market growth narrowed, and the data show that the growth rate of imports and exports in October was lower than expected, but also reflected that the impact of the downturn of the overseas economy on the export of aluminum and other metal products in China will continue to reflect, from a technical point of view, the main 20-day moving average of Shanghai aluminum has not effectively stood firm, and the short-term plate is still facing adjustment
.