Shanghai aluminum high volatility short-term may have a pullback

In terms of industry, Brazilian aluminum production hit its lowest level since the end of the last century in 2018, and in the face of pressure on energy costs, the Brazilian Aluminum Association (Abal) said in its 2019 aluminum industry supply and demand and outlook report released on Monday that the outlook for aluminum production in 2019 depends on the full resumption of production at the Alunorte alumina plant in Pará
.

In terms of the market, the first trading range of aluminum futures fluctuated climbed, Shanghai trading price between 14190-14210 yuan / ton, opposite the flat water nearby, with the second trading range price fell rapidly, the market transaction price began to concentrate at 14160-14180 yuan / ton, still in the flat water near the plate, up nearly 40 yuan / ton from the previous day, Wuxi trading price between 14190-14210 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction price between 14210-14230 yuan / ton
。 The intraday market has sufficient supply, holders are very active in shipments, and there are few receivers, the market shows a situation of more and less supply, and the actual trading activity has dropped
sharply compared with the previous day.

In terms of inventories, LME aluminum stocks were 1,053,925 tons on April 18, down 6,875 tons from the previous session; As of April 19, 2019, electrolytic aluminum stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 665,067 tons, down 36,071 tons
from the previous week.
From a seasonal perspective, current inventories remain at an average
level compared to the last five years.

The high volatility of the main 1906 contract of Shanghai aluminum during the day, the recent favorable supply side, and the decline in London and Shanghai aluminum inventories supported the strong performance of aluminum prices, but whether it can further rise, it is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand
.
In the spot market, the shippers are very active, while the recipients are few, the market shows a situation of more receiving and less, and the actual trading activity has dropped
sharply compared with the previous day.
Downstream manufacturers are still mainly purchasing on demand today, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods is not high
.
On the technical side, the rally of the Shanghai aluminum 1906 contract slowed down, and from the 60-minute line, the aluminum price constitutes a phased top in the short term, and there may be a pullback
in the short term.