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Overnight, non-ferrous metals rose across the board, with London aluminum hitting a new high in nearly three months, and Shanghai aluminum relatively weak
.
The medium-term shock trend of Shanghai aluminum has not changed, and the short-term consumption weakening price may be repeated, and it will be treated
as a high shock for the time being.
The overseas European energy crisis continues to ferment, and due to the great uncertainty of overseas natural gas supply, production reduction may expand.
In terms of domestic fundamentals, after the correction of the dual-control atmosphere, various places have begun to resume production, Yunnan, Shanxi and other provinces have increased their electrolytic aluminum operating capacity slightly, and domestic operating capacity has continued to rise
.
In terms of cost and profit, the suspension of production in Shandong may cause the overall production of alumina to decline in February, which will form a significant support for the price of alumina, and it is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent increase in alumina prices to the disturbance of corporate profits
.
On the demand side, downstream aluminum processing enterprises near the Spring Festival have successively stopped work and holiday, and demand has weakened
.
In terms of inventory, as of January 20, the domestic aluminum ingot stock was 724,000 tons, and the weekly accumulation was 02,000 tons
.
On January 20, LME aluminium stocks moved -5,100 tonnes from the previous session to 873,650 tonnes
.
The domestic aluminum ingot social library was converted into an accumulation bank, and the Nanhai, Hangzhou and Gongyi regions contributed the main accumulation library
.
It is necessary to pay attention to the accumulation range
during the Spring Festival.
As the domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 02,000 tons compared with last week, the accumulation of aluminum ingots is expected to be fulfilled, Shanghai aluminum continued the long exit process in the morning, Shanghai aluminum weighted position reduction exceeded 17,000 lots, the center of gravity of the traded aluminum price moved down to around 21300-21400 yuan / ton, East China spot trading premium continued, Gongyi and Foshan market inventory increment concentration, East China destocking continued to support the premium around
30 yuan / ton.
The spot discount in the Central Plains (Gongyi) area is still concentrated, and a small number of holders offer prices as low as 220 yuan / ton to East China, and the downstream entry is still weak
.
In terms of price, the margin of supply and demand tends to be loose or makes it difficult for aluminum prices to have greater upward momentum, but overseas production cuts and tightening supply of raw materials still support aluminum prices below, it is recommended to treat the idea of bargaining and long in the short term, and need to be vigilant against the pullback
of aluminum prices caused by the exit of bulls caused by safe-haven demand.