Shanghai aluminum high volatility market expects consumption to pick up

In terms of news, the overseas European energy crisis is still fermenting, due to the greater uncertainty of overseas natural gas supply before the spring of March, production cuts or expansion
again.
In terms of domestic fundamentals, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other places have begun to resume production, and the process of resumption of production is uneven
.
In terms of consumption, downstream consumption just needs a seasonal slow recovery, but considering the current high aluminum prices or suppressing demand, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact
of the epidemic and environmental protection control in the north on the downstream resumption of work.

In terms of inventory, the latest social treasury data shows that inventories have accumulated, with Nanhai, Wuxi and Gongyi contributing the main increments
.
On February 21, domestic aluminum ingot stocks were 1.
081 million tons, 42,000 tons
more than last Thursday.
LME aluminum inventories fell by 5,800 tonnes from the previous session to 843,000 tonnes
on Feb.
21.

The current threat of the energy crisis to overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity may continue to the beginning of spring, and with the resumption of construction in various places after the holiday, driven by real estate stock construction, completion and infrastructure projects, consumption can be expected to pick up, but it is necessary to be wary of the fluctuation of market expectations for interest rate hikes in the late first quarter, and it is recommended to unilaterally treat
it with the idea of bargain hunting and long.