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On Wednesday, the main 2008 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened high and fluctuated, with the highest 14450 yuan / ton and the lowest 14285 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 14390 yuan / ton, up 1.
02% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME aluminum fell under pressure, as of 15:40 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1690 US dollars / ton, down 0.
56%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) The EU is ready to set up a recovery fund totaling 750 billion euros, of which 390 billion euros will be used as non-reimbursable allocations and another 360 billion euros as loans
.
(2) The United States asked China to close the consulate general in Houston and give China only 3 days to evacuate
.
Spot analysis: On July 22, spot A00 aluminum reported 14500-14540 yuan / ton, the average price was 14520 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan / ton
daily.
The supply of goods in the intraday market is relatively loose, the holders continue to actively ship, the willingness to raise prices is significantly eased compared with the previous period, the middlemen can receive the goods, the downstream on-demand procurement is the mainstay, and the traders feedback that there is not much bright spot
in the downstream receiving goods.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 105863 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 3269 tons; On July 21, LME aluminum stocks were 1,652,200 tons, a daily decrease of 6,775 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2008 contract are 78278 lots, minus 1614 lots per day, short positions are 85251 lots, daily minus 2583 lots, net short positions are 6973 lots, daily minus 969 lots, long and short are reduced, net space is reduced
.
Market research and judgment: On July 22, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2008 opened high.
The worsening epidemic in the United States and the deterioration of Sino-US relations have led to heightened market concerns; At the same time, the profit of domestic electrolytic aluminum production has been significantly repaired, which stimulates aluminum plants to accelerate the resumption of new production; And the rise in the Shanghai ratio has led to the expansion of the import profit window, stimulating overseas source imports, and the pressure on aluminum prices has increased
.
However, domestic aluminum production in June increased sharply year-on-year, downstream demand performance can be lowered, short-term supply is still in a tight state, Shanghai aluminum inventory recently fell slightly, supporting aluminum prices
.
In terms of spot, the intraday market supply is relatively loose, holders continue to actively ship, middlemen can receive goods, and downstream on-demand procurement is the mainstay
.
Technically, the mainstream short position reduction of the main 2008 contract of Shanghai aluminum is large, focusing on the 20-day moving average support
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai-aluminum 2008 contract wait and see
for the time being.
