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On Thursday, the main 2106 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose sharply, with the highest 19,000 yuan / ton and the lowest 18,450 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 18,865 yuan / ton, up 2.
08% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME aluminum rose sharply, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 2425.
5 US dollars / ton, up 1.
06%
per day.
Market focus: (1) The US FOMC announced its latest interest rate decision, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the range of 0%-0.
25%, the excess reserve ratio unchanged at 0.
1%, the discount rate unchanged at 0.
25%, and the monthly bond purchase scale at $120 billion
.
(2) National Bureau of Statistics, China's total output of alumina in March was 6.
5366 million tons, an increase of 11.
3% year-on-year, and the output in the first quarter was 19.
23 million tons, an increase of 13.
7%
year-on-year.
(3) China's total aluminum output in March was 5.
367 million tons, an increase of 17.
6% year-on-year, and the output in the first quarter was 13.
89 million tons, an increase of 31.
1%
year-on-year.
Spot analysis: On April 29, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 18710-18750 yuan / ton, with an average price of 18730 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 330 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the cargo holders covered the goods and sold them, and the downstream was afraid of heights and waited and watched, and the overall transaction was not happy
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 142455 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 1377 tons, a decline of 9 consecutive days; On April 28, LME stocks were 1,782,600 tons, down 4,925 tons per day, down for 14 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2106 contract 173584 lots, a daily decrease of 1536 lots, short positions of 188127 lots, a daily increase of 1238 lots, a net short position of 14543 lots, a daily increase of 2774 lots, a long reduction of short increases, and an increase in net short
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2106 rose
sharply on April 29.
At present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum plant is basically in a state of full production, the growth space of the operating rate is limited, and under the domestic carbon neutrality goal, as a high-energy-consuming industry, the production capacity and output of electrolytic aluminum will be limited
.
Recently, domestic aluminum ingot inventories have turned into a downward trend, and the traditional consumption season has gradually emerged, which has strong support for aluminum prices
.
Technically, the mainstream position of the main 2106 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased and decreased more, paying attention to the support of the 10-day moving average, and it is expected that the market volatility will be strong
.