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On August 1, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum futures opened at 18,720 yuan, the highest intraday touched 18,780 yuan, the lowest down 18,140 yuan, up to now, the main force of Shanghai aluminum fell by nearly 3%.
In the external market, as of now, LME aluminum opened at $2481.
50 today, the highest price was $2481.
50, the lowest price was $2431.
50, and now it is $2433.
00
.
On the macro level, the National Development and Reform Commission and other three departments: revised the Guiding Catalogue
for Industrial Structure Adjustment.
Strictly implement the capacity replacement policy of steel, cement, flat glass, electrolytic aluminum and other industries, strengthen the analysis and early warning of overcapacity in key industries and window guidance, and accelerate the resolution of excess capacity
.
In terms of news, on July 29, according to foreign media reports, Norwegian Hydro's Albras former aluminum plant in Brazil has completed the restart of Line 2, after a power outage caused one of the plant's four electrolyzers to close
.
The February 2022 power outage led to the total closure of Line 2, affecting 25% of primary aluminium production at the Albras primary aluminium plant
.
Albras has now fully resumed electrolyzer production and is currently operating
at full capacity of 460,000 tonnes per year.
On the demand side, with the arrival of the off-season and the deterioration of the external environment, the order situation of the processing industry is relatively weak, and the recovery of final consumption will take time and more stimulus measures
.
In terms of inventory, social stocks continued to degrade
.
At present, the Shanghai aluminum market has rebounded
sharply due to real estate news and the Fed's comments.
From the perspective of aluminum price trends, it is currently mainly affected by macro news, and it is expected that short-term Shanghai aluminum will still be strongly supported
.
Medium and long-term electrolytic aluminum still lacks a strong upward drive, and the increase in supply makes aluminum supply strong and demand weak, so it is expected that although there will be a rebound in the near future, it is difficult to become a trend and the extent is limited
.
