Shanghai aluminum has continued to rise recently, and adjustment risks are not ruled out

In terms of external trading, the beginning of the week coincided with the domestic May Day holiday and the market was closed, and there was a lack of guidance; Although the foreign epidemic situation is still grim, the economic stimulus control policy is favorable, easing the market panic, the short-term macro overall atmosphere tends to ease, the stable trend of aluminum shock continues, continue to pay attention to the 1460-1520 range shock
.

Market: after the holiday, the shipment of holders increased, but with the price decline, the willingness of holders to raise prices was higher, and the spot premium was raised, and the spot aluminum premium in East China was as high as 130 yuan on Friday; Most downstream enterprises have resumed work, but due to the impact of prices and orders, the willingness to stock is not high, and more on-demand procurement is maintained, and market transactions are mostly reflected in traders
.

South China: As of Friday, the price of Foshan aluminum ingot tickets was between 13120-13220 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan from the previous week, weaker than East China, mainly because the high premium caused by the tightening of the market before the holiday fell this week, the price should fall, downstream enterprises wait-and-see sentiment is stronger, the market transaction is not as good as before the
holiday.

East China: Last week due to the May Day holiday, only 3 trading days, the market lacked actual benefits, weak fundamentals, and cost down, spot aluminum ingot prices first rose and then declined, rushing back down, East China spot aluminum touched 13,000 after giving up most of the gains, as of Friday, the price was between 12820-12860 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan tons
from the previous week.

From the trend point of view, the recent rebound trend of Shanghai aluminum is more obvious, up as much as 13% in the past month, on the one hand, because the macro atmosphere tends to ease, the spot source circulation is tight, the domestic destocking range has increased, on the other hand, because Yunnan and Gansu have recently issued notices of storage and storage plans
.
However, from the fundamental point of view, the fundamentals of aluminum prices have not yet supported the sharp rise in aluminum prices, economic data has declined, production profits have recovered, and aluminum mills' willingness to reduce production has declined
.
As well as the severe epidemic situation abroad, export orders are still restricted
.
In view of the recent continuous rise, it is not ruled out that there is a risk of adjustment, and the price difference between the current month and the near month may make the spot aluminum price make up for the decline; Operationally wait-and-see, Shanghai aluminum is concerned about the 12200-12600 range oscillation
.