Shanghai aluminum has a slight lack of upward mobility, down slightly from last week's average price

According to statistics, the outbound efforts have not yet recovered, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 137,000 tons from last Thursday to 1.
230 million tons
.
The continuous increase in inventory is mainly due to the impact of the epidemic and the extension of the accumulation time of the Spring Festival, second, the restrictions on the transportation of goods and personnel circulation in various regions of the epidemic, resulting in restrictions on downstream demand, and third, although the continued release of new production capacity is relatively low compared with last year, the increase in supply side continues to maintain a state of high inventory
.

From the perspective of consumption: according to the news on the 19th, the National Development and Reform Commission said that the resumption rate of key non-ferrous metal enterprises reached 80%, and the resumption rate of enterprises above designated size in large provinces and cities exceeded 50%.

Moreover, local governments have successively promoted the resumption of work and production, but they are still hindered by traffic and restricted personnel circulation, resulting in the resumption of work but the production capacity cannot return to the previous level
in time.

It is understood that at present, aluminum profiles, aluminum strips, aluminum cables and alloy processing enterprises are slow to resume work, some enterprises announced that there is a delay period of 2-7 days between the resumption of work and the actual start of production, and there are still some enterprises that have not yet started work, and are still waiting for the process of government procedures and approval, therefore, in February itself, the operating rate of aluminum product processing enterprises in various sectors is not as expected, and it is difficult for consumption to improve significantly in February
.

Spot: East China this week trading is light, traders still have some trading action, but due to weak demand, holders often lower in the afternoon, spot discount has not narrowed significantly, and traders feedback, the current downstream stocking is not obvious, only a small number of individual manufacturers buy goods every day, most downstream factories have not resumed work, or are still digesting their own pre-holiday raw material inventory, poor transactions
.
There are many sources of circulating goods in the South China market, few transactions are made by holders, aluminum ingot inventory continues to increase, automobile transportation is abundant, market demand is not good, Guangdong aluminum ingot spot discount continues to expand
.
In the case of continuous accumulation of inventory and lack of substantial benefits, Shanghai aluminum is running low, so when can a wave of rebound be carried out?

At present, aluminum plants are discharging normally, spot supply is sufficient, consumption performance is weak, accumulation continues to increase, whether from the supply and demand side or the first technical analysis, February aluminum prices are difficult to rise
sharply 。 Because the only factor supporting aluminum prices not to leak comes from the market's expectation of the traditional consumption season from March to May, if the epidemic contagiousness in March is controlled, personnel arrive normally, domestic traffic returns to normal and downstream production progress is gradually on track, then aluminum prices still have a rebound of 200-300 yuan / ton may be, if the above mentioned personnel, transportation, epidemic and production in March several factors will not significantly improve by then, then aluminum consumption in March this year is not as good as last year, and the medium-term rise in aluminum prices is difficult
。