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Today, the Shanghai aluminum 1611 contract fluctuated in a narrow range around 11920 yuan / ton, and finished at 11915 yuan / ton, up 0.
34%
from yesterday's closing price.
At present, Shanghai aluminum is still running below the moving average group, and the short-term downside risk remains
.
At the same time, the term structure of the aluminum market maintained a negative arrangement of near high and far low, and the negative spread between Shanghai aluminum 1610 and 1611 contracts remained slightly at 285 yuan / ton, indicating that the willingness of forward contracts to fall is still strong
.
Externally: Aluminium continued to fluctuate in a narrow range, trading was still very light, of which 3-month Lun Aluminum fell slightly by 0.
06% to $1575 / ton, making Lun Aluminum barely run around M60, but the short-term Lun Aluminum RSI indicator fell to the oversold area, need to be wary of technical correction needs, lower support to focus on 1550 US dollars / ton, upper rebound resistance 1650 US dollars / ton
.
Macro: The Asian dollar index oscillated slightly lower, partially cutting the larger gains recorded on Friday, and is now trading around
95.
8.
At the same time, house prices in China's 70 large and medium-sized cities rose by more than 90% month-on-month in August, with the highest increase of 5.
6%, indicating that domestic housing prices are still in an upward cycle, mainly boosted by loose monetary policy
.
In terms of industries, Standard Chartered expects China to gradually increase exports of semi-finished aluminum products this year, as the price recovery reopened factories, and the export of semi-finished aluminum products jumped 17%
year-on-year in August to 410,000 tons.
Market: On September 19, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 12400-12430 yuan / ton, the discount of the month was 20 yuan / ton to Pingshui, Wuxi transaction concentration was 12400-12450 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration was 12400-12440 yuan / ton
.
The arrival of goods during the holiday period is small, coupled with the implementation of the on-board restriction re-rule on September 21, the market is worried that the arrival of aluminum ingots will be affected, the middlemen are willing to receive goods, some are downstream in advance, the positive willingness of the market to receive goods, promote the willingness of holders to raise prices, the overall transaction is active within the day, and it is difficult for the market to find suitable sources
.
The market's worried mentality may boost the high premium of aluminum prices after
tomorrow's monthly change.
On the first trading day after the holiday, the Shanghai aluminum 1611 contract oscillation rose slightly to 11915 yuan / ton, the performance was much weaker than other base metals, suppressed by the increase in supply pressure in the domestic aluminum market, in view of the Shanghai aluminum bias space situation has not changed, it is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1611 contract can be backed by 12050 yuan under the cautious short, the target reference 11800 yuan / ton
.