Shanghai aluminum fell under pressure and downstream demand weakened at the end of the year

Market focus: (1) At 23:00 Beijing time on Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary nominee Yellen will participate in the hearing, which is expected to rule out the possibility of seeking a weaker dollar, but does not want the dollar to strengthen
.
(2) According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's aluminum production in 2020 was 37.
08 million tons, a record of the year, of which primary aluminum production in December was 3.
27 million tons, an increase of 2.
8% from 3.
182 million tons in November, and also a monthly record
.
It is expected that China's primary aluminum production will increase by 6.
5%
in 2021.
(3) China's imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 265569 tons in December, and the arbitrage window closed in the fourth quarter, but it was still the highest since
September.

Spot analysis: On January 19, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14810-14850 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14830 yuan / ton, down 230 yuan / ton
per day.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the cargo holders shipped at a high price, the enthusiasm for receiving goods was reduced, the downstream just needed to take less, and the transaction activity was average
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 89,482 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 1,025 tons; On January 18, LME aluminum stocks were 1397075 tons, an increase of 108,400 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2103 contract were 87505 lots, a daily increase of 3307 lots, short positions were 102570 lots, a daily increase of 202 lots, a net short position of 15065 lots, a daily decrease of 3105 lots, both long and short increases, and the net space decreased
.

On January 19, Shanghai aluminum 2103 fell under pressure
.
U.
S.
Yellen is expected to rule out seeking a weaker dollar, but also does not want a stronger dollar, while saying that bold investments are needed to boost the economy and accelerate vaccine distribution to control the epidemic, which is conducive to improving
risk sentiment.
At the end of the year, downstream demand turned weak and natural gas supply restrictions and other reasons, resulting in some aluminum companies stopping production, domestic inventories entered the accumulation cycle, and aluminum prices performed weakly
.
However, the continuous deteriorating of aluminum inventories and the closure of the import arbitrage window will inhibit the inflow of overseas goods, and the market transaction has improved slightly after the decline in aluminum prices, which is conducive to the stabilization
of aluminum prices.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the main 2103 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position greatly, paying attention to the pressure of the 10-day moving average, and it is expected to adjust the short-term low
.