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Shanghai aluminum rebounded
slightly overnight.
At present, domestic supply and demand have increased, inventory data shows that aluminum ingots have been significantly destocked by nearly 70,000 tons in the past week, storage events have been disrupted, but inventories are expected to fall to a lower level, spot turns to premium, and the spot end is not very bad
.
Shanghai aluminum continues to test the effectiveness of the previous low of 19,500 yuan support, and it is not suitable to chase the short for the
time being.
On the macro front, the domestic economy recovered significantly in May, but the improvement was limited, of which real estate investment fell by 4% year-on-year from January to May, and improved month-on-month; On June 15, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points to a range of 1.
50%-1.
75%, the largest rate hike since 1994, and said it was determined to fight inflation risks, while lowering economic growth expectations, raising inflation expectations, and raising forward interest rate expectations
.
In terms of fundamentals, inventories fell sharply due to warehouse events and increased outbounds, SMM stocks reported 757,000 tons on the 20th, down 28,000 tons from last Thursday; during the same period, the steel union statistics aluminum rod inventory was 131,500 tons, down 04,000 tons from last Thursday; exports remained high in May 2022, and China exported 676,600 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum in May; cumulative exports from January to May were 2.
9018 million tons, up 34.
2% year-on-year.
In May, imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 188,500 tons, an increase of 13,200 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative import volume from January to May was 896,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 23.
2%.
A year-on-year decrease of 24.
9
%.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity once again entered the peak of starting production and resuming production, Liancheng Aluminum, Bai Mine and other enterprises started to resume production, the total operating capacity is close to 41 million tons, the supply continues to rise, domestic demand is weak, but the import of primary aluminum is basically stopped, export demand is strong, and the supply is still filling the
gap.
Repeated pledges in domestic warehouses have triggered a crisis of trust in the trade market, suspended long-term transactions, and plummeted trade liquidity; Spot trading is high, due to the large price decline
.
