Shanghai aluminum downward rebound, downstream demand has weakened

Market focus: (1) Caixin China's manufacturing PMI recorded 53 in December 2020, down 1.
9 percentage points from a ten-year high in November, but still significantly higher than the boom-bust line
.
(2) According to Mymetal data, on January 4, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China's main market was 644,000 tons, an increase of 44,000 tons
from December 28.

Spot analysis: On January 4, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 15570-15610 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15590 yuan / ton, down 120 yuan / ton
per day.
The circulation supply is relatively sufficient, the downstream demand has not improved, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is general, and the transaction performance is not good
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 64,803 tons, a daily decrease of 50 tons; On December 31, LME aluminum stocks were 1,345,800 tons, a daily decrease of 5,450 tons, a decline of 6 consecutive days
.
As of the week ended December 31, the Shanghai aluminum inventory in the previous period was reported 224235 tons, a weekly decrease of 1042 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2102 contract were 65082 lots, a daily increase of 1123 lots, short positions were 78339 lots, a daily increase of 1521 lots, a net short position of 13257 lots, a daily increase of 398 lots, long and short increases, and net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2102 rebounded
on January 4.
China's Caixin manufacturing PMI data for December maintained expansion range, indicating that the economy maintained its recovery momentum and boosted market optimism; And in anticipation of the US maintaining loose monetary policy, the dollar index continued to be weak
.
The recent pollution weather in the north has caused some aluminum companies to face production stoppages, downstream demand has weakened, and domestic electrolytic aluminum spot stocks have continued to rise; At the same time, the high production profits of aluminum enterprises will stimulate the accelerated launch of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, which will put long-term pressure
on aluminum prices.
However, the short-term domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is slow, so that the inventory growth is still limited, supporting the stabilization
of aluminum prices.
Technically, the main 2102 contract of Shanghai aluminum shrinks and increases positions to close the doji, and it is expected to stabilize the operation in the
short term.