Shanghai aluminum decline slowed down short-term or there is a certain possibility of rebound

On the macro front, the current global low interest rate and ultra-loose monetary policy are still more likely to continue in the future, which is a very favorable factor for commodities, and as far as Fed monetary policy is concerned, there are no conditions for immediately changing the current ultra-loose monetary policy in the future, so the dollar is likely to remain weak
.

In terms of inventory, the social stock of aluminum was 680,000 tons (613,000 tons of aluminum ingots and 67,000 tons of aluminum rods), an increase of 22,500 tons from the previous week, compared with 642,000 tons in the same period last year, an increase of 38,000 tons
year-on-year.
LME stocks fell again, down 26,600 tons to 1,345,800 tons, down 127,200 tons from the beginning of the year and 129,200 tons from the same period last year;

In terms of the market, as of December 31, the basis between Shanghai spot and the current month contract rose by 30-70, and the basis narrowed significantly from the previous week; Last week, some holders in the East China market shipped very positively, but some traders closed their accounts, the trade atmosphere weakened, the downstream receiving was also not obvious, and the overall shipment was more and less; South China is also facing a situation of more and less succession, and the trading atmosphere is bleak
.

Although consumption has weakened with seasonal changes, but the current inventory as a whole remains at a low level, coupled with the market for the US $900 billion stimulus plan has certain expectations, short-term aluminum prices or there is a certain possibility of rebound, the overall shock situation does not change, the main force can pay attention to the fluctuation of 1.
53-15,700 range, the operation can be appropriately bought on demand or wait and see, it is expected that tomorrow's spot aluminum will rise
steadily.