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On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum 1805 contract continued to decline, showing a rush back down, trading at 14275-14035 yuan / ton during the day, closing at 14065 yuan / ton, down 0.
07% per day, closing at a low since May 15 last year, far weaker than other base metals
.
Shanghai aluminum continued the positive arrangement of near, low, far and high, of which the positive price difference between the Shanghai aluminum 1804 contract and the 1805 contract remained at 85 yuan / ton
.
In terms of external disk, Asian Lun aluminum fell under pressure, of which 3 months Lun aluminum traded at 2124-2106 US dollars / ton, now closed at 2109 US dollars / ton, down 0.
5% per day, the current Lun aluminum fell into a low oscillation finishing, showing that the upper selling pressure is heavier, the lower support focuses on the 200-day moving average, that is, 2080 US dollars / ton
.
In terms of the market, on March 12, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 13800-13820 yuan / ton, the discount for the month was 100-90 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration was 13800-13820 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration was 13810-13830 yuan / ton
.
Holders shipped more in the early stage, stabilized the plate in the later stage, weakened shipments, increased the overall receiving of goods by traders, increased the willingness of downstream enterprises to purchase at low prices, and the overall transaction was more active
.
In terms of news, Li Wei, a deputy to the National People's Congress and chairman of Shenhuo Group, recently said that the price of electrolytic aluminum is currently at the bottom, and the price upward is a general trend
.
After the first quarter, with the successive start of downstream industries and the reduction of inventory, coupled with the increase in costs, it is expected that the price of electrolytic aluminum may gradually rise along the supply cost curve in the second quarter, and "the rational market price should be about 15,000 yuan / ton"
.
As for the situation of the coal industry, Li Wei believes that the situation in 2018 should not be worse than last year
.
In terms of stocks, as of March 12, LME aluminum ingot stocks were 1,306,400 tons, down 5,325 tons
from the previous trading day.
On March 12, the inventory of aluminum warehouse receipts in the previous period was 786269 tons, an increase of 3,803 tons
from the previous trading day.
On March 12, SMM statistics domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory (including SHFE warehouse receipt): the total inventory of aluminum ingots in 8 places was 2.
263 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons
from last Thursday.
During the day, Shanghai aluminum 1805 continued to fall to 14065 yuan / ton under pressure, hitting a new low in recent times, as domestic inventories continued to reach new highs, supply pressure increased, and aluminum price rebound was highly restricted
.
However, after the aluminum price continues to fall, it is necessary to be wary of technical rebound demand, especially near the 14,000 yuan / ton mark of aluminum prices, and the trend may tend to be cautious
.
It is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1805 contract can sell high and low in the range of 13950-14150 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 80 yuan / ton
each.
