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On the last trading day of December, as of the close of 3 p.
m.
, the main 2102 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down at 15460, down 15, or 0.
10%; Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate in a narrow range during the day, and the overall fluctuation range was small
.
The raw material end continues to be affected by the environmental protection production limit in the north, and the continuous compression of regional operating capacity has led to a decline
in phased supply.
However, under the suppression of the continued release of new production capacity in the southwest region, with the opening of the roasting furnace of the Zunyi project of the State Power Investment Corporation, the contradiction between the supply and demand imbalance between the north and the south continues to be prominent
.
At the same time, a small fluctuation in the price of lye will also win a rebound in the profit of alumina production, but there are still doubts about the sustainability of the rebound
.
On the supply side, under the condition that the average smelting profit remains high, short-term price fluctuations will not affect the willingness of enterprises to put into production, and in the case of the acceleration of new production capacity, superimposed on the continued growth of primary aluminum imports, the short-term and medium-term supply still maintains an upward trend
.
On the demand side, with the advent of the deep winter, the trend of weakening terminal consumption has appeared, and the seasonal decline in real estate and infrastructure orders has begun to drag down aluminum water consumption, while the tight problem of power supply is also putting pressure on regional consumption
.
Under the influence of a new round of rain, snow and cold snap, it is appropriate
to continue to wait and see if the demand decline caused by insufficient power supply may affect the rhythm of inventory.
At present, the current macro situation remains relatively stable, the epidemic and other bearish news is gradually digested, aluminum prices or return to fundamentals dominance, short-term trend or gradually stabilize, but considering the recent launch of the new crown vaccine or a certain boost to market confidence, the subsequent aluminum price still has the possibility of upside, the main force can continue to pay attention to the 1.
53-15,700 range of volatility for the time being, the operation can temporarily wait and see or buy the right amount of bargain, it is expected that next week's spot aluminum will continue to fluctuate the market, and the overall stability
.
