Shanghai aluminum continues to consolidate and pay attention to the risk of fallback

The domestic market was basically stable last week, and the spot price fell slightly to 13,000 in the middle of the week, and the next weekend recovered
.
The spot price of the Yangtze River continued to remain around 13,000, and the price difference between the two places returned to normal
.
The market is now afraid of high sentiment, middlemen are actively shipping, and downstream on-demand procurement is the mainstay
.

From a macro perspective, domestic economic data gradually recovered, and fiscal and monetary policies followed; The overseas epidemic has rotated in many places, and European and American governments have collectively introduced measures to respond.

From the perspective of industry fundamentals, the aluminum price remained around 13,000, the whole industry quickly returned to the situation of profit of more than 1,000 yuan, and the new production capacity accelerated the start
.
Midstream spot inventories maintained a steady decline, forming a strong support
for market prices.

In terms of inventory, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum on Thursday was 986,000 tons, down 90,000 tons from last Monday, and it is still in a downward trend
.
But at current inventory levels, soft positions are not achievable
.
At the end of last year, when the soft position was pressed, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was about 600,000 tons, and the inventory in the previous period was about 200,000 tons, and now the electrolytic aluminum inventory is still a certain distance
from this level.

At present, the disk profit of electrolytic aluminum is about 1100 yuan / ton
.
The price of raw material alumina has recovered slightly, but it is still at a low level, which makes the profit of electrolytic aluminum smelting at a high level
.
Under such smelting profits, the possibility of smelters actively reducing production is almost 0, and the probability of increasing production is relatively high
.
Last week, 250,000 tons of production capacity was put into operation in Wenshan, Yunnan, and 375,000 tons of capacity of Guangyuan Zhongfu will also start production
in June.

At present, the rapid decline in electrolytic aluminum inventories has supported aluminum prices, but with the release of production capacity, supply pressure will be probable
.
Therefore, although Shanghai aluminum is still in the rally, the subsequent rise may be limited, and it is necessary to pay attention to the risk
of falling after approaching 10,000.