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Today's Shanghai aluminum 1610 contract continued the overnight decline, falling to 12215 yuan / ton at the end of the day, down 0.
85% from yesterday's closing price, the current Shanghai aluminum has effectively fallen below the support of M60, short-term or trigger technical selling
.
At the same time, the term structure of the aluminum market turned to a negative arrangement of near high and far low, and the negative price difference between Shanghai aluminum 1610 and 1611 contracts narrowed slightly to 75 yuan / ton
.
In terms of external trading, today's Ashilun aluminum rushed back down, showing that the upper selling pressure is heavier, of which the 3-month Lun aluminum slightly fell 0.
31% to 1624.
5 US dollars / ton, down 4.
97% from the previous high of 1709 US dollars / ton, fell below the support of M60 below, the risk of decline increased, and the lower support moved down to the integer mark of 1600 US dollars / ton
.
Macro: The Asian dollar index extended its rebound and is now trading around 96.
1, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains, increasing the pressure
on base metals.
With the focus on China's August manufacturing PMI on Thursday and the US non-farm payrolls for August on Friday, the US labor market is expected to continue to improve, raising expectations
for a rate hike in September.
In terms of industry, it is reported that aluminum producers seek Japanese aluminum premium quotations of $82/ton in the fourth quarter, down 9-12% from the third quarter, due to weaker spot premiums
.
In terms of market: on August 31, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 12650-12660 yuan / ton, the premium for the month was 130-140 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration was 12660-12670 yuan / ton, Hangzhou quotation concentrated 12700-12720 yuan / ton
.
Recently, the supply of goods in circulation in Shanghai has increased, but the willingness of middlemen and downstream enterprises to receive goods has cooled, and the transaction is dismal; Wuxi holders are willing to ship positively, with the narrowing of spot premiums, middlemen have profit margins, the willingness to receive goods has rebounded compared with yesterday, at the end of the month, the downstream maintains a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is concentrated among
traders.
Spot premiums continued to fall, but the decline slowed down, activity increased, and transactions are expected to pick up
after the change of month.
Today's Shanghai aluminum 1610 contract continued to fall to 12215 yuan / ton under pressure, indicating that there is a certain selling pressure above, and effectively fell below the key technical support below, and the US dollar index continued to rebound, no rebound momentum
.
The operation thinking of the aluminum market needs to be changed
.
It is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1610 contract can be backed by 12370 yuan / ton at a high altitude, the entry reference is 12300 yuan, and the target is 12100 yuan / ton
.
