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Today's Shanghai aluminum main contract 1702 bottomed out, partially cut the overnight decline, intraday trading at 13100-12820 yuan / ton, the end of the day closed at 13005 yuan / ton, down 0.
27% per day, for three consecutive days
.
At the same time, the term structure of the aluminum market changed to a positive arrangement of near, low, far high, and the positive price difference between Shanghai aluminum 1701 and 1702 contracts remained at 50 yuan / ton
.
Externally: Asian aluminum oscillation rebound, of which 3-month Lun aluminum slightly rose 0.
2% to 1743 US dollars / ton, but still effectively stabilized above the moving average group, its upper rebound resistance focus on 1800 US dollars / ton, short-term technical form performance is stronger than Shanghai aluminum, Lun aluminum operating range focus on 1700-1800 US dollars / ton
.
Macro: The Fed announced a 25-tone interest rate hike as scheduled in the early hours of this morning, and is expected to raise interest rates three times next year, Yellen said that the rate hike is a vote of confidence in the economy, and the dollar index rose further after the interest rate announcement, now trading around
102.
38.
In addition, US industrial production fell 0.
4% month-on-month in November, a larger-than-expected decline as utility output fell sharply and manufacturing output fell
.
Aluminum industry information, China's electrolytic aluminum output in November was 2.
8 million tons, an increase of 2.
56% month-on-month, and also climbed 10.
63% year-on-year, and the monthly output hit a new record high
.
From January to November this year, China's cumulative output of electrolytic aluminum was 28.
98 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of only 120,000 tons or 0.
41%, highlighting the supply pressure
of the domestic aluminum market.
In terms of market: on December 15, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 12770-12840 yuan / ton, and the discount for the month was 20 yuan / ton to flat water
.
On the last trading day, the price difference of aluminum next month narrowed from the highest 70-80 yuan / ton to about 20 yuan / ton, the holder is bullish on tomorrow's spot price, the price is reluctant to sell, the middleman believes that assuming that today's spot premium state remains unchanged, then tomorrow after the month after the spot price will inevitably rise, so the willingness to stock is positive, downstream enterprises passive willingness to receive goods slightly improved, the overall transaction due to the last trading day of the next month of the month price difference and more active than yesterday, mainly from the contribution
of traders.
Intraday Shanghai aluminum 1702 contract oscillation fell to 13005 yuan / ton, the performance is weaker than other base metals and London aluminum, the current Shanghai aluminum initially fell below the short-term oscillation pattern, the risk of decline significantly climbed, as domestic electrolytic aluminum production continued to rise, increasing the pressure on aluminum market supply
.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1702 contract is backed by 13200 yuan at a high altitude, with an entry reference of 13100 yuan and a target of 12800 yuan / ton
.
