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On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum 1709 rose strongly, trading at 14550-14355 yuan / ton during the day, and closing at 14500 yuan / ton at the end of the day, effectively stabilizing above the moving average group, and the daily closing price hit a new high since April 27 this year, maintaining more ideas
in the short term.
At the same time, the positive price difference between Shanghai-aluminum 1708 and 1709 contracts remained at 110 yuan / ton
.
In terms of external trading, LME aluminum rose strongly, but the increase was weaker than Lun copper and Lun zinc, of which 3 months Lun aluminum traded at 1940-1922 US dollars / ton, now up 0.
47% to 1935 US dollars / ton, the current Lun aluminum rebounded above the moving average group, showing that after the release of downside risks, aluminum prices gradually stabilized
.
On the macro front, the Asian dollar index rebounded, partially paring Friday's losses and now trading around 95 as U.
S.
retail sales and inflation indicators for June showed a decline
in expectations of the Federal Reserve's September rate hike.
In addition, the latest release of China's GDP in the second quarter increased by 6.
9% year-on-year, higher than the expected 6.
8%, while the added value of industries above designated size from January to June was 6.
9% year-on-year, and the monthly increase in June was 7.
6% year-on-year, indicating that the growth rate of domestic industry has expanded significantly, which is good for base metals
.
In terms of the market, on July 17, the spot transaction in Shanghai was 14210-14240 yuan / ton, the discount was 70-50 yuan / ton, Wuxi traded 14210-14240 yuan / ton, and Hangzhou traded 14230-14250 yuan / ton
。 Shanghai's actual transaction price for the next month 1708 contract discount 150-170 yuan / ton, the actual transaction discount slightly expanded compared with last Friday, aluminum prices rebounded, holders high shipment willingness increased, but downstream feedback is mainly demand-based, there is no sign of active hoarding, Wuxi, Hangzhou and Shanghai and other places still have aluminum ingots arriving one after another, production reduction on the supply of aluminum ingots has not shown significant signs
of weakening.
In terms of industry, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's primary aluminum production in June was 2.
93 million tons, an increase of 3.
53% month-on-month and 7.
4% year-on-year, and the monthly output hit a record high, while China's cumulative primary aluminum output from January to June was 16.
84 million tons, an increase of 8.
8%
year-on-year.
The Shanghai aluminum 1709 contract rebounded to close at 14,500 yuan / ton, stronger than Lun aluminum, and the short-term rebound pattern maintained well, which means that bulls' confidence has further climbed, as the market hopes that the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply reform will enter the implementation stage
.
However, as domestic primary aluminum production continued to reach a new high in June, it is necessary to be wary of the suppression
of aluminum prices.
