Shanghai aluminum bottomed out and rebounded, sharply cutting the intraday decline

In terms of external trading, LME aluminum oscillation rose slightly, of which 3-month Lun aluminum traded at 2041-2020 yuan / ton, now slightly up 0.
35% to 2034 US dollars / ton, last week Lun aluminum rose 7.
13%, the daily closing price hit a high since November 12, 2004, this week even if there is a technical pullback demand, the expected range is relatively limited, the overall rise is obvious
.

On the macro front, the Asian dollar index fluctuated in a narrow range and is now trading around 93.
18, still close to the low since May 2016, as the US CPI growth in July fell on Friday, the pace of inflation slowed, and expectations of a September interest rate hike were reduced
.
At the same time, the latest macro data released in July have fallen, worse than expected, especially the industrial added value fell to 6.
4% year-on-year, hitting a new low in five months, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment also fell to a new low of 8.
3%
this year.

In terms of industry, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's electrolytic aluminum production in July was 2.
69 million tons, down 0.
3% year-on-year, the first decrease in nine months; At the same time, the month-on-month sharp decrease of 240,000 tons or 8.
2%, January to July electrolytic aluminum production was 19.
53 million tons, an increase of 7.
5% year-on-year, the growth rate also hit a low point since December last year, the data shows that since July to the electrolytic aluminum plant to reduce production capacity into the market accelerated, the effect began to appear
.

In terms of the market, on August 15, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 15510-15530 yuan / ton, the discount for the month 120-110 yuan / ton, the 09 contract discount 220-210 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration 15510-15520 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration 15540-15560 yuan / ton, the holder actively shipped, the transaction was not good, the initiative to reduce the price, the last trading day, the discount narrowed, the middleman is difficult to have room for operation, the receipt is mainly for downstream and delivery orders, Downstream enterprises are bearish, choose to wait and see, after the end of the session, Shanghai quotations concentrated 15540-15550 yuan / ton, the monthly discount maintained 120-110 yuan / ton, Wuxi quotations concentrated 15540-15550 yuan / ton, the performance is priceless, the overall transaction is cooler
than yesterday.

During the day, the Shanghai aluminum 1710 contract bottomed out and rebounded to 15810 yuan / ton, performing against the decline of other base metals, and at the same time accompanied by the reduction and contraction of positions, indicating that the long and short actively reduced their positions and left the market
.
Against the background that aluminum prices have risen by more than 8.
4% this month, short-term attention is paid to the risk
of technical correction in aluminum prices.
In terms of operation, short-term long-term chasing needs to be cautious, it is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1710 contract can sell high and low in the range of 15600-16000 yuan, and the stop loss is 200 yuan / ton
each.