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Today's Shanghai aluminum main contract 1707 bottomed out again, trading at 13685-13940 yuan / ton, and closing at 13845 yuan / ton at the end of the day, unchanged from yesterday, but the current aluminum price is running below the main moving average group, short-term decline risk remains
.
At the same time, the positive price difference between Shanghai-aluminum 1706 and 1707 contracts remained at 50 yuan / ton
.
External trend: LME aluminum stopped falling and stabilized today, recovering for the first time in the past seven trading days, of which 3-month Lun aluminum edged up 0.
59% to $1877 / ton, but aluminum prices are still effectively running below the moving average group, indicating that short-term downside risks remain.
Macro: The Asian dollar index hovers around 99.
5 and runs above
the M200.
In addition, China's vehicle sales in April fell 2.
2% y/y compared with a 4% y/y increase in March, reducing the outlook for aluminum market demand as lower vehicle sales decline
.
Aluminum industry information, as of May 11, SMM statistics domestic electrolytic aluminum spot inventory in five places was 1.
195 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 31,000 tons
.
Market: on May 11, Shanghai spot aluminum trading concentrated 13710-13730 yuan / ton, the month discount 20 to flat water, Wuxi spot transaction 13690-13720 yuan / ton, Hangzhou spot transaction 13720-13730 yuan / ton, smelters are more willing to raise prices, after increasing the proportion of aluminum water output, the actual amount of ingots decreased, resulting in a decline in aluminum ingot output, consumption of aluminum ingot inventory declined
.
Approaching the change of month, the price difference narrowed to 50 yuan / ton in the next month, and the downstream actively entered the market after the price stabilized, and the overall transaction market was relatively active
.
The Shanghai aluminum 1707 contract rebounded to 13845 yuan / ton during the day, indicating that its willingness to fall has weakened, but due to the lack of effective upward momentum to boost, it still needs to be cautious
about its rebound height.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1707 contract can be backed by 14,000 yuan below the sky, and the entry reference is around 13,900 yuan, and the target is 13,700 yuan / ton
.
