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Shanghai aluminum fluctuated
on Friday night.
Recently, the varieties affected by the dual control of energy consumption have shown signs of reducing positions and pullback, and there are regulatory concerns, but the industrial structure has not changed
.
The dual control policy of energy consumption in various places is strict, the problem of lack of electricity is becoming more and more prominent, the risk of electrolytic aluminum production reduction is maintained, Shanghai aluminum is still difficult to fall, and maintain the idea of pullback buying
.
However, consumption has been suppressed to a certain extent under the influence of high aluminum prices and power restrictions, paying attention to the change
of inventory in the peak season.
In terms of macro, recently, Yunnan and other provinces have begun to control energy consumption by means of production stoppage, power rationing and other methods, and strive to achieve annual targets
.
In terms of fundamentals, SMM inventory on the 23rd reported 789,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last Thursday; during the same period, the steel union statistics aluminum rod inventory was 167,500 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from last Thursday; the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in August was 490,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons from the previous month, and exports increased steadily; imported primary aluminum was 104,000 tons, down 75,000 tons
from the previous month.
Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Yunnan and other places are rumored to cut power and production, and supply reduction is expected to increase
again.
Affected by the rise in aluminum prices, downstream consumption has been seriously hindered, aluminum rod production has been reduced, and the amount of ingots has increased
.
Overall, in the context of the intensification of power shortage and the tightening of dual control of energy consumption, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in the fourth quarter will be further expanded, superimposed on the new production capacity in the year or hopeless, the shutdown capacity is difficult to recover, with the gradual recovery of consumption, the price center of electrolytic aluminum is expected to move further up, it is recommended to continue to hold in the early stage, pay attention to the specific volume of imports, weakening macro demand, aluminum export tax rebates and other risk factors
.
