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Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level, and there was resistance
near the front high.
Recently, local policies have been introduced one after another, and the scale of production reduction will be further expanded
.
Recently, the varieties affected by the dual control of energy consumption have shown a rapid upward momentum, and Shanghai aluminum is also prone to rise and fall, maintaining a long idea
.
However, consumption has also been suppressed to a certain extent under the influence of high aluminum prices and power restrictions, focusing on peak season inventory changes
.
In the domestic market, the fundamentals of the aluminum market show a pattern of weak supply and demand: the supply side is affected by factors such as pressure production in Guangxi, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Yunnan and other places, and it still takes time for electrolyzers to recover in some areas, and the short-term supply margin is weak
.
On the demand side, downstream consumption is suppressed by high aluminum prices and power cuts in Guangdong and Jiangsu, and it is still difficult to be optimistic
in the short term.
In the future, there is not much space above the aluminum price, mainly considering that the profit squeeze of processing enterprises is close to the limit, and the news that the reserve bureau is preparing for the next round of selling reserves will suppress the bulls' sentiment
.
For the space below the aluminum price, we believe that there is still uncertainty, and if the subsequent thermal coal supply is still not guaranteed, the room for aluminum prices to fall will not be too large
.
In the short term, Shanghai aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high volatility dynamic trend, it is recommended to pay attention to risk factors
such as the sustainability of social library accumulation, the specific volume of imports, the weakening of macro demand, and the reduction of aluminum export tax rebates.
