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Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to be strong, breaking through the previous high to refresh the new high
since 2006.
Thermal coal continues to rise sharply, causing the cost of electrolytic aluminum to rise rapidly, and it is difficult for aluminum to fall
.
The heating season is approaching, and the scale of subsequent electrolytic aluminum production reduction may continue to expand
.
The impact on the consumer side still exists, and attention is paid to inventory changes
under the condition of weak supply and demand.
Short-term Shanghai aluminum is driven by the surge in thermal coal, and it is not appropriate to chase the rise, mainly wait and see
.
In terms of spot, Foshan A00 aluminum quotation 23210 yuan / ton, Wuxi A00 aluminum quotation 23220 yuan / ton, the base price increased by 400 yuan / ton, downstream demand continued to be suppressed, transaction continued to be sluggish
.
In terms of processing fees, yesterday's aluminum rod processing fees were reduced by 20-30 yuan / ton; The aluminum rod processing fee remained stable across the board; The price of ADC12 series and A380 remained stable, the price of A356 increased slightly by 300 yuan / ton, and the price of ZLD102/104 increased sharply by 400 yuan / ton
.
In terms of stocks, the current stock level rose to 862,000 tons, and the accumulation rate has slowed down
.
In terms of fundamentals, China's electrolytic aluminum output in September was 3.
111 million tons, down 0.
1% year-on-year, and the current operating capacity fell to 37.
45 million tons / year, and it is expected that the operating capacity will continue to decline in October
.
In the environment of dual control in many places and continuous pressurization of power restrictions, the supply and demand ends continue to tighten
.
The dry period in Yunnan is approaching, when the production reduction on the supply side is relatively more significant than the decline in demand side, and the downward space of aluminum prices is limited
.
At present, the fluctuation degree of aluminum prices in the high range is relatively strong, and liquidity is expected
to shrink to a certain extent.
