Shanghai aluminum afternoon review on May 19

On the macro front, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 9.
8% year-on-year in April, and there were signs of marginal slowdown on the production side; The epidemic situation in East Asia has expanded, and market risk aversion has rebounded
.
Vaccination in Europe and the United States has accelerated, the economy has lifted lockdowns and recovered well, but the overheating of domestic commodities has attracted high-level attention, and various departments have begun to introduce targeted measures, and market sentiment has fluctuated greatly; Short-term demand is strong, destocking is strong, spot price support is strong, high prices fluctuate greatly, it is recommended to oversell and go long, mainly wait-and-see
.

Looking ahead, aluminum prices will remain high amid limited supply increments and peak season logic still
cashing in.
Recently, due to the rapid rise in aluminum prices, downstream processing enterprises are afraid of heights, and the market circulation is not good, but from the perspective of downstream orders, the current order volume is sufficient, and the demand is still good, supporting aluminum prices, and the market expects that domestic electrolytic aluminum will maintain a slight destocking trend in May, but the destocking rate may be difficult to increase
.
At the same time, due to the delay in the production capacity of new production capacity in Yunnan, the release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in May and June may not be as
much as expected.
In the short term, after the rapid rise in the market, it is not ruled out that there will be a pullback, but the space for a pullback is limited, and the medium term is still optimistic about aluminum prices
.