Shanghai aluminum afternoon review on May 17

In terms of fundamentals, the supply in May due to the Yunaluminum accident cut production, and the national operating capacity is expected to be flat in May, but the recent circulation of Rusal on the market has begun to increase, and imports may increase
.
In terms of demand, since last Friday, the demand performance began to be weak, the downstream has not fully recovered, previously after the price fell after the collective replenishment, but the price rebounded more than 1,000 yuan / ton after the cold again, yesterday aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 12,000 tons, and last Thursday to the warehouse 39,000 tons, so Monday's inventory data performance is very general
.

At present, the performance of overseas supply and stock is insufficient, the import gap will continue to shift to the production side, and the speed of domestic new production is expected to further accelerate under the abundant profit margin, and it seems that the overall supply pressure is not large and there is still a
margin.
The market began to digest the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike, the market risk aversion has weakened, but liquidity contraction is a foregone conclusion, domestic auto sector demand will improve, the real estate sector continues to weaken, near-term demand is still difficult to say optimistic, supply and demand mismatch pattern continues
.
Aluminum prices may enter the logic of weak long-term shocks and short-term stabilization after downstream replenishment, and the inflection point focuses on the follow-up epidemic trend
.