Shanghai aluminum afternoon review on May 16

On the macro front, the central bank cut the interest rate on the first home loan by 20 basis points; Shanghai released a target of zero social coverage in mid-May, and plans to resume business and market this week; A number of Fed officials sent hawkish signals, and Powell said that in order to curb inflation, even if it has a short-term impact on the economy, he will not hesitate
.

In terms of fundamentals, SMM stocks on the 12th reported 1.
003 million tons, down 30,000 tons from last Thursday; during the same period, the steel union statistics aluminum rod inventory was 156,500 tons, an increase of 02,500 tons from last Thursday; in April 2022, China exported 596,800 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative export from January to April was 2.
2252 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.
2%, and exports maintained high growth in April; In March, imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 197,000 tons, down 4.
6% year-on-year, and the cumulative total import from January to March was 533,000 tons, down 19.
4%
year-on-year.
The total operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is close to 41 million tons, the supply continues to rise, and domestic demand declines, but the import of primary aluminum has basically stopped, the export demand is strong, the supply is still making up the gap, and the peak season is expected to be delayed
.

The epidemic situation in Shanghai has entered the final stage, the short-term domestic market sentiment is strong, and the impact of the stronger US dollar on the domestic market sentiment has weakened; The fundamental performance is better, the inventory continues to dematerialize to a large extent, it is recommended to go long on the dip; On the medium and long-term trend, the US dollar interest rate hike cycle and the domestic economy are down, and the long-term downward pressure is greater
.