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Shanghai aluminum fell slightly last week, and aluminum ingots continued to destock, but the decline and outbound volume declined
.
Downstream starts are still at a high level, and short-term destocking is expected to continue, but export weakness will appear, some domestic sales have been front-loaded, and the sustainability of consumption is doubtful
.
Electrolytic aluminum profit recovery, weak overseas consumption and the opening of the import window will limit the height of
Shanghai aluminum.
Shanghai aluminum has signs of topping, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being, and the bulls reduce their holdings
.
The U.
S.
unemployment rate was 14.
7% in April, the highest
ever.
However, the overseas epidemic has been eased to a certain extent, the United States has the intention to quickly return to work, and the unemployment rate will unsurprisingly improve in May
.
The latest social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 1.
172 million tons, which continued to decline by 32,000 tons
compared with the previous value.
Domestic infrastructure may begin to make efforts, which will boost terminal consumption to a certain extent
.
In the case of rising demand at home and abroad, it is expected that subsequent electrolytic aluminum stocks will continue to decline
.
However, the trade relationship between China and the United States has become turbulent again, and the subsequent export pressure of domestic aluminum will become greater
.
As the profit of electrolytic aluminum gradually rebounds, the pressure of subsequent production becomes greater, of which Yunnan Wenshan Aluminum's 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum production capacity began to be put into operation, and the rise of Shanghai aluminum may be difficult to sustain.