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Shanghai aluminum fell sharply on Friday to close the long black line, close to the 13,000 mark
.
It is expected that after the sharp fall of Shanghai aluminum, there may be a significant rebound driven by the external market today, and the 13,000 support below may be more obvious
.
Upper pressure 13400, lower support 13000
.
On the macro level, on the one hand, the overseas epidemic continues to spread, and market panic has led to a sharp decline in asset prices; On the other hand, the domestic manufacturing PMI in February was 35.
7, which was significantly lower than expected, and the market sentiment will become more pessimistic
.
On the cost side, due to the reduction of production of alumina plants and the increase in demand due to replenishment by aluminum enterprises, the price of alumina rose moderately; On the supply side, although the current electrolytic aluminum enterprises have basically suspended the resumption of production and the progress of new production, they have basically maintained the steady progress of original production; On the demand side, although downstream aluminum processing enterprises and terminal industries have also actively resumed work, the actual production recovery of downstream enterprises has been slow, and the procurement demand for spot aluminum ingots has not increased significantly, inhibiting the weekly aluminum ingot outflow
.
At present, the social inventory has accumulated to 1.
385 million tons, and the suppression of aluminum prices by short-term inventories is still obviously superimposed on the current increasingly pessimistic market sentiment at home and abroad, it is recommended to focus on short-term caution and pay attention to the development of the overseas epidemic and the recovery of
downstream enterprises.
