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Yesterday, the main 2004 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened slightly lower at 13,685 yuan / ton, briefly rebounded and fell again to around 13,660 yuan / ton, and then maintained a shock of about 13,670 yuan / ton, the volatility was narrow but the center of gravity shifted slightly down, closing at 13,690 yuan / ton, down 0.
22%, the trading volume increased to 33,000 lots, the position dimension increased to 102,000 hands, night trading continued to be suspended, and the recovery time will be notified
separately 。 The trend of electrolytic aluminum accumulation is still continuing, the period of aluminum increase but the decline is not large, the recovery of demand is expected and the average cost of the industry driven by alumina has support for aluminum prices, and it is expected that the main operating range of Shanghai aluminum is 13500-13800 yuan / ton
.
At the macro level, the improvement of epidemic data and the implementation of a series of policies and measures have boosted market sentiment, and the state has actively promoted the resumption of work, and real industrial demand is expected to gradually return; On the cost side, alumina prices rose slightly this week, due to the greater pressure of logistics and transportation in various places, the supply of raw materials for alumina plants was tight, some enterprises in Jinyu area reduced production and pressed production, and aluminum plant alumina inventories were tight, and the market was bullish on alumina prices in the short term, thereby supporting the cost side of electrolytic aluminum; On the supply side, although aluminum companies have temporarily postponed the resumption of production and production progress in order to ensure the steady progress of production, and the impact on train transportation is very small, it is expected that the social inventory of aluminum ingots will remain cumulative until March; On the demand side, the latest social inventory of aluminum ingots was 1.
162 million tons, an increase of 69,000 tons per week, which suppressed aluminum prices
.
Downstream consumer enterprises have resumed work one after another, but there is still a gap between the resumption rate before the holiday, and downstream consumption has maintained a weak trend
.
In the case of low Shanghai aluminum prices, the recovery of downstream consumption may bring impulse rise to aluminum prices, and observe the opportunity
to go long on dips.
It is expected that aluminum prices will maintain a low volatility trend
until the epidemic is effectively controlled.
