Shanghai aluminum afternoon review on February 11

On the macro front, the recent domestic economic data is better than expected, the country tends to support the economy through loose monetary policy, and the sentiment of the domestically priced commodity market is generally good
.

On the supply side, overseas, the current European electricity price has risen by more than 3 times compared with the beginning of last year, the production cost of aluminum plants is extremely high, and the resumption of production of overseas aluminum plants requires a long recovery period; Domestically, after the Spring Festival, relevant aluminum enterprises have resumed work and production, and supply has recovered
.

On the demand side, LME inventory continued to be destocked, and domestic processing enterprises began and resumed production after the holiday, and domestic and foreign inventories are expected to continue to destock, and supply and demand are expected to be good
in the medium term.
On the cost side, the reduction in alumina production has led to another round of alumina prices, and the cost has risen
.

In the medium and long term, the central bank will cut interest rates to support the economy, and demand is more likely to pick up
.
With the gradual stabilization of the epidemic situation in Bose and the smooth holding of the Winter Olympics, the subsequent production of alumina will resume, the supply pressure will be reduced, and there is still a chance
for aluminum prices to recover in the short term.
In the long run, it is expected that terminal demand will pick up at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter, and the demand side will support the rapid destocking of inventory, and aluminum prices will have a large upside in the medium and long term
.