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On Monday morning, Shanghai aluminum continued the strong operation of last Friday night, superimposed on the low social inventory of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the week, the scale of storage was lower than expected, and the impact of the rise of overseas aluminum was on the rise, and the triple profit supported the aluminum price, and the long position increased by more than 30,000 lots, and the aluminum price further rose
.
East China spot trading concentrated 19080-19100 yuan / ton, the opposite surface discount 50-30 yuan / ton, the actual transaction discount did not expand rapidly with the sharp rise in aluminum prices, spot attributes reflect the following effect
.
In terms of inventory, by the end of June, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 868,000 tons, the overall accumulation degree of electrolytic aluminum this year was less than expected, the overall water level was lower than the same period in 2018, 2019 and 2020, the speed of destocking was similar to 2019, the destocking cycle was longer than in previous years, the cycle of the peak season showed a backward phenomenon to a certain extent, and the speed of destocking in July with the peak season will continue to slow down
.
According to the overall lower-than-expected reaction of the reserve dumping market and the change of price recovery, it is not ruled out that the State Reserve Bureau will dynamically increase the scale of storage dumping in the future, and the overall aluminum price will face strong upward pressure
after the peak season becomes weaker.
However, this year, there has always been a low water level of warehouse receipts and social reservoirs, which supports the difficulty of significantly reducing aluminum prices, or operating in a weak shock trend
.
It is expected that aluminum prices in July will have a slight upside supported by the tail of the consumption season
.