Shanghai aluminum afternoon comment on February 7

During the Spring Festival holiday, Lun Aluminum showed a high volatility pattern, with large volatility, during which it was not only constrained by macro risk factors, but also boosted by the continued strong overseas fundamentals, and the overall close fell by 1.
23%.

The logic of external trading still lies in the tight overseas fundamentals caused by the reduction of production of European aluminum plants
.
The supply in Europe continues to be tight, and the EU aluminum premium has climbed
again.
At the same time, LME inventories have also continued to deteriorate, the write-off warehouse receipt ratio has remained high, and Cash-3M has maintained a high premium structure, all of which constitute a strong support
for overseas aluminum prices.

Domestically, the market focuses on the amount
of inventory accumulated during the Spring Festival.
Considering that most aluminum plate and foil enterprises do not take a holiday during the Spring Festival due to sufficient orders, and although the supply side began to resume production of aluminum plants in Mongolia, Yunnan, Shanxi and other places in the previous period, the resumption of production of some aluminum plants in Yunnan is slow, and the accumulation range of social banks during the Spring Festival (the first to the sixth day of the first year) will not be as good as in previous years (about 170,000 tons in previous years).

Therefore, the aluminum price after the holiday is expected to show a strong pattern of volatility, and the overall decline of the Lun aluminum holiday will have a certain drag on the opening of Shanghai aluminum, but the space below Shanghai aluminum is not large, and the overall operation
is still strong.