Shanghai aluminum afternoon comment on August 25

On August 24, the domestic spot aluminum price fell, and the spot AOO aluminum ingot price of Yangtze River Nonferrous Network was reported at 14,700 yuan / ton, down 130 yuan; The price of Chinalco East China AOO aluminum ingots was 14690 yuan / ton, down 170 yuan
.
The accumulation of electrolytic aluminum inventory is less than expected, the social inventory on Monday fell by 6,000 tons compared with last Monday, the inventory did not increase but fell, the demand for gold nine silver ten is expected to be better, and it is expected that today's spot aluminum price will rise
slightly.

At the macro level, the manufacturing PMI in Europe and the United States hit a new high, indicating that the European and American economies have shown recovery momentum
after the epidemic.
From a fundamental point of view, in terms of supply, the profit of aluminum plants expanded this week, and some companies continued to join the ranks of resumption of production, but production capacity and output have not been fully released, and output supply is temporarily stable
.
In terms of demand, the overall start of aluminum downstream is still stable, in addition to the strong demand for aluminum foil, the orders of small and medium-sized processing enterprises in profiles, cables, strips and other sectors have not yet improved significantly
.
However, based on the peak season expectation, it is difficult for the supply increase before the end of October to cope with the increase in demand in the peak season, and the market capital is more willing to go long
.
At present, aluminum ingots continue to accumulate, and the upward drive is not sufficient
.
Strategically, it is recommended to hold more in the early stage and increase the amount of pullback
.