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Entering 2021, Shandong local refinery diesel prices are in a volatile and declining situation, and the transaction price has fallen by about 200 yuan/ton in a month.
In the later stage, the new year is approaching, and domestic production companies are about to enter the annual rest period.
The activity of logistics and transportation will decrease, the demand may be further reduced, and the price may continue to bottom out.
Entering 2021, although diesel prices have shown a short-term upward trend, due to weak demand, market trading is not as expected, and prices have entered a modest decline.
As of January 28, the average diesel price closed at 4,673 yuan/ Tons, the fluctuation range within the month remained at around 100 yuan/ton.
However, from the perspective of transaction prices, diesel oil has fallen by about 200 yuan/ton in a month.
At present, the price level is acceptable at this position.
In January, the crude oil market was in a situation of fluctuating and rising prices under the condition of production cuts and smooth promotion of vaccines, and the retail price limit of domestic refined oil products will also experience "two consecutive rises" within the year.
Under such a large environment, the price of local refined diesel is difficult to improve.
The main reason is that, as we all know, the new year is approaching, domestic production enterprises are gradually entering the state of annual rest, and the starting load of industrial, mining and infrastructure projects has dropped to a low point.
At the same time , The activity of logistics and transportation operations decreased, leading to continued weakness in diesel demand; second, during the Spring Festival last year, a public health incident broke out, prices fell to a low point, and social inventory turnover was more difficult.
Therefore, purchasing cautious mood increased, and refinery shipments fell short of expectations.
, Had to fall in price to stimulate sales.
However, even though it has fallen to a relatively low point, the downstream industry has fewer large-scale purchases, mostly mid- and downstream customers based on-demand replenishment.
After phased procurement operations, the current refinery inventory is generally low.
As of January 28, the diesel inventory level of Shandong local refinery was at 21.
2%, a drop of about 2% compared to the same period last month.
At present, refineries generally operate with low inventory to ensure normal production and sales.
Low inventory levels and on-demand procurement operations in the middle and lower reaches are the main reasons for the strong support of the current price level.
? According to understanding, the diesel shipments from refineries are generally acceptable recently, and shipments from refineries in low-price areas are smooth, and some can achieve a balance between production and sales.
Most of them are mainly for mid- and downstream customers who just need to purchase.
Although there are certain large-scale transactions, the overall operation is relatively slow.
less.
In the later stage, it is difficult for the market to go out of direction in terms of crude oil, and will continue to be dominated by narrow fluctuations, which will have a weak impact on the diesel market.
In terms of local refinery supply, at the end of the year, the refinery will consider lowering the operating load due to the inventory situation at the end of the year, and the market supply will likely be reduced; on the demand side, due to the impact of the Spring Festival approaching, diesel demand may drop to a low point in the year, midstream and downstream The customer just needs replenishment operations are coming to an end, and the pace of refinery shipments will slow down.
Therefore, prices will likely fall further, and speculative purchases may increase subsequently.
However, judging from the current crude oil prices compared with the same period in previous years, diesel prices are relatively low, so although there is a downside risk, the decline is limited.
In the later stage, the new year is approaching, and domestic production companies are about to enter the annual rest period.
The activity of logistics and transportation will decrease, the demand may be further reduced, and the price may continue to bottom out.
Entering 2021, although diesel prices have shown a short-term upward trend, due to weak demand, market trading is not as expected, and prices have entered a modest decline.
As of January 28, the average diesel price closed at 4,673 yuan/ Tons, the fluctuation range within the month remained at around 100 yuan/ton.
However, from the perspective of transaction prices, diesel oil has fallen by about 200 yuan/ton in a month.
At present, the price level is acceptable at this position.
In January, the crude oil market was in a situation of fluctuating and rising prices under the condition of production cuts and smooth promotion of vaccines, and the retail price limit of domestic refined oil products will also experience "two consecutive rises" within the year.
Under such a large environment, the price of local refined diesel is difficult to improve.
The main reason is that, as we all know, the new year is approaching, domestic production enterprises are gradually entering the state of annual rest, and the starting load of industrial, mining and infrastructure projects has dropped to a low point.
At the same time , The activity of logistics and transportation operations decreased, leading to continued weakness in diesel demand; second, during the Spring Festival last year, a public health incident broke out, prices fell to a low point, and social inventory turnover was more difficult.
Therefore, purchasing cautious mood increased, and refinery shipments fell short of expectations.
, Had to fall in price to stimulate sales.
However, even though it has fallen to a relatively low point, the downstream industry has fewer large-scale purchases, mostly mid- and downstream customers based on-demand replenishment.
After phased procurement operations, the current refinery inventory is generally low.
As of January 28, the diesel inventory level of Shandong local refinery was at 21.
2%, a drop of about 2% compared to the same period last month.
At present, refineries generally operate with low inventory to ensure normal production and sales.
Low inventory levels and on-demand procurement operations in the middle and lower reaches are the main reasons for the strong support of the current price level.
? According to understanding, the diesel shipments from refineries are generally acceptable recently, and shipments from refineries in low-price areas are smooth, and some can achieve a balance between production and sales.
Most of them are mainly for mid- and downstream customers who just need to purchase.
Although there are certain large-scale transactions, the overall operation is relatively slow.
less.
In the later stage, it is difficult for the market to go out of direction in terms of crude oil, and will continue to be dominated by narrow fluctuations, which will have a weak impact on the diesel market.
In terms of local refinery supply, at the end of the year, the refinery will consider lowering the operating load due to the inventory situation at the end of the year, and the market supply will likely be reduced; on the demand side, due to the impact of the Spring Festival approaching, diesel demand may drop to a low point in the year, midstream and downstream The customer just needs replenishment operations are coming to an end, and the pace of refinery shipments will slow down.
Therefore, prices will likely fall further, and speculative purchases may increase subsequently.
However, judging from the current crude oil prices compared with the same period in previous years, diesel prices are relatively low, so although there is a downside risk, the decline is limited.
